Dutta and Don Design DC Head to TerraNova are Chasing Their First Series Win

The Grand Prix Freestyle at TerraNova Dressage III has a clear favorite, a compelling debut, and enough variance in the rest of the field to keep it interesting. Here's the breakdown.

Dutta's Shot at a Win

On freestyle averages — a reliable predictor of final placings — Dutta and Don Design DC stand out as the clear favorite. Her last three freestyles average 72%, the strongest mark in the field, and she has a consistent pattern of building on whatever she lays down in the Grand Prix.

Two podiums from their last three starts, both at Wellington, underline the pair's current form. Having previously faced some of the circuit's most formidable competition, they arrive here as favorites for a first Open leg win.

With four qualifying rides banked, a fourth-place finish or better allows Dutta to drop her lowest score and climb the standings - but a win would carry her into the Series top 10.

Kohmann's Proven Formula Faces a Debut Question

Kevin Kohmann is the reason Dutta’s win chance deserves a second look. He and Famous are making their Grand Prix Freestyle debut together, (the horse's one freestyle on record was an amateur-level test with a different rider) and Kohmann's Grand Prix average on Famous sits around 66%. 

That’s not a lot to go on for a prediction, but although the horse is unknown, the rider is absolutely not. Kohmann has completed over 20 Grand Prix Freestyles with his World Cup mount, Duenensee. Together, they’ve never scored below their Grand Prix score in the freestyle and consistently add six to eight points. It’s unlikely that a brand new partnership would have the same results, but if we apply even two-thirds of that to Kohmann’s baseline with Famous the projection lands around 70.3% — competitive for second and within range of Dutta. Apply the full amount and he's projecting around 72.3%, which puts him directly on par with the class favorite. That's an optimistic read for a debut freestyle on a horse he's ridden in just six FEI tests. But it's not a baseless one.

He currently sits 20th in the Series on two qualifying scores. Last place this weekend moves him to 16th. A win puts him in the top eight.

The Rest of the Field

Charlotte Burssens is the hardest rider in this field to predict. Her freestyle scores span nearly nine points with Elfentanz — 63.4 on the low end, 72.4 at the top — and she has scored below her Grand Prix score in a freestyle twice. Her Grand Prix form has been trending down lately, but her results at higher-level shows tend to suffer while she rebounds at CDI3*, which is what this weekend is. If she's going to land in the upper part of her range, this is the class for it.

Micah Deligdish and Carpe Diem De Massa have one Grand Prix Freestyle together, and it came in nearly four points above their Grand Prix average. One data point is one data point, but a debut freestyle that lifts rather than drags suggests something is working. 

Finally, Sahar Daniel Hirosh and Handsome C are a very new partnership having only been showing together since March. The horse carries a personal best of 71.155 under a prior rider, so the talent is there, even if the partnership hasn’t yet accessed it yet. 

Stream TerraNova Dressage III live on the USEF Network. Sign up for free as a fan to watch the action. The Freestyle kicks off at 4 p.m. EST on May 2.