HSH Double Sixteen entered the Fair Hill International CCI4*-S with the highest Top Speed Percentage (TSP) in the field, a 94%. This means he had outpaced 94% of opponents across his three fastest runs. That number was being used as a prediction. Today, it became a result.
The pair moved from seventh after dressage to first place by showjumping clear and catching the cross-country time (the only one's to do so) to finish on their dressage score (FOD) of 37.7. It was just the second FOD of the 2026 Series so far, following <a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/fast-flawless-and-the-first-of-the-2026-series-lucienne-bellissimo-dyri-deliver-at-stable-view" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lucienne Bellissimo and Dyri at Stable View</a> two weeks ago.&nbsp;
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/3196d3d4-0dec-47c3-a9cc-fd3add53009d.jpg?width=4539&amp;height=3026" alt="Caroline Pamukcu and Hsh Double Sixteen">
Across the full 2025 Series, only four FODs were recorded from 349 runs (1%) - and impressively, this combination was responsible for one of them.&nbsp;The 2026 Series is now tracking at a similar rate, with two FODs already in the first nine of 20 qualifiers.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/48889016-252b-410a-8a02-3b4cc420d538.png?width=1748&amp;height=614" alt="W A0 Jf the Four Fod S From the 2025 Series Qualifiers Nbsp (1) (1)">
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">How rare is a finish like this at Fair Hill?</h2>
Fair Hill returned to the CCI4*-S format for the first time since 2022, and the history of the class tells you exactly how hard the cross-country time is to catch. Across 143 starters (including this weekend), just two combinations have ever made it inside the time. Kurt Agardy Martin &amp; Anna Bella in 2014 were the first and they also finished on their dressage score that day. HSH Double Sixteen is now the second to do both.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/02c29ba0-3449-46fa-a72c-77b461ee8db2.png?width=1288&amp;height=1862" alt="A Oycz All Previous Winners of the Cci4 S at Fair Hill Nbsp ">
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">What it means for the Series leaderboard</h2>
Caroline Pamukcu extends her lead at the top of the standings. Boyd Martin added further points with Miks Master C in second and Shanroe Cooley in third, moving to second in the Series. These results mean Tamie Smith arrives at Ocala with serious pressure. Read more on that <a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/six-horses-two-weekends-why-tamie-smith-is-the-series-favorite" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here.</a>
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/f1d5f9d9-ce89-4cbe-abe5-5beab3b9412a.png?width=1240&amp;height=814" alt="W1 N Zj Leaderboard of the Us Equestrian Open of Eventing Nbsp ">
<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/the-open-weekly-world-cup-glory-for-farrington-historic-podium-for-simonson" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/797de4a4-a9fd-4ef8-8f83-7253791613fc.png?width=4048&amp;height=577" alt="Us Open Blog Inserts"></a>
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<h3 data-path-to-node="6">Go Beyond the Article</h3>
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The Mission of the Open The US Equestrian Open was born from a strategic Board of Directors decision in 2023 to build a permanent legacy for US Equestrian sport.&nbsp;Its mission is to grow and foster a deeper connection to equestrianism by delivering a premier, unified championship series in the Olympic disciplines.&nbsp;
With top-level competition, storytelling, and a dynamic, entertaining experience, the vision is to transform disparate events into a cohesive, narrative-driven season. The Series is anchored by core values which include fan-first accessibility, competitive integrity, storytelling, and a dynamic entertaining experience onsite.

Caroline Pamukcu & HSH Double Sixteen at a trot up

Caroline Pamukcu & HSH Double Sixteen speed to the top at Fair Hill

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<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Eventing: Two FODs from two winners, and a leaderboard that's moving fast</h2>
Next Qualifier: Cosequin Lexington CCI4*-S (April 22) |&nbsp;The Final: Morven Park 4*-L, October 8th
It was a weekend that produced two winners, leaderboard movement, and a statistical rarity that happened twice in the same weekend across two different venues. The double-header delivered.
<h3 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Fair Hill: Pamukcu &amp; HSH Double Sixteen catch the clock</h3>
Caroline Pamukcu &amp; HSH Double Sixteen won the Fair Hill CCI4*-S by doing what almost nobody does at this venue, making the cross-country time. They were only the second combination in Fair Hill history to do so across 143 starters, and they finished on their dressage score (FOD) of 37.7 as a result. It was the second FOD of the 2026 Series, following&nbsp;Lucienne Bellissimo&nbsp;&amp; Dyri at Stable View a fortnight ago.
Read the full review of Caroline's win<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/caroline-pamukcu-hsh-double-sixteen-speed-to-the-top-at-fair-hill" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> here.</a>
<h3 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Ocala: Smith steers Jump To Day D to a win in just his second 4*</h3>
Down in Florida, Tamie Smith &amp; Jump To Day D won the Ocala CCI4*-S and they did it with an FOD of their own, finishing on their dressage score of 31.5. Just three combinations had ever finished on their dressage score in this event&rsquo;s history, all before the move from the Ocala Jockey Club. Smith becomes the fourth and the first at this venue (Ocala Festival of Eventing). She also placed fifth with Spiro P on his four-star debut.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/DXVVQdCjGpt/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&amp;igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/7ac6f3c2-8f6f-47f0-953a-d91cb150d951.png?width=904&amp;height=1099" alt="Screenshot 2026 04 20 121920"></a>
Read more on EquiRatings' prediction that Tamie Smith will win the 2026 Series<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/six-horses-two-weekends-why-tamie-smith-is-the-series-favorite" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> here.</a>
<h3 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The Leaderboard</h3>
Caroline Pamukcu extends her lead to 185 points, while Boyd Martin moves into second on 160 after finishing second and third at Fair Hill. Tamie Smith jumps to third on 155 and heads to Kentucky with three horses entered. With neither Caroline nor Boyd competing in the US Equestrian Open qualifier this week, this could be Tamie&rsquo;s chance to get ahead.
<a href="https://us.equestrian-hub.com/public/championship/eventing/2" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/c56d96de-cd72-42a9-94a1-6d9c3c125ab4.png?width=706&amp;height=495" alt="Screenshot 2026 04 21 100037"></a>
<h3 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">What's Next</h3>
This is it... the countdown to the&nbsp;"Best Weekend All Year" is nearly over. As the horse trailers roll (and planes land!) into the Kentucky Horse Park, everyone is buzzing from a weekend of dual-coast qualifiers that dramatically shifted the leaderboard. There will be plenty of content across the week from previews, predictions, form guides, and more. So stay tuned on <a href="usequestrianopen.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">usequestrianopen.org</a>, socials and the <a href="https://sites.libsyn.com/559710" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US Equestrian Open Podcast</a>
<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/254e09dd-d92e-4194-986b-baf0dbd8460b.png?width=1080&amp;height=158" alt="Read More Eventing"></a>
&nbsp;
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Jumping: Greya becomes the highest-rated horse in the world</h2>
If you have noticed how often we have mentioned Greya this year, we're not sorry. When a horse becomes the highest-rated in the world, it's worth talking about. We have been calling her Greya the Great for a number of month but the numbers have now made it official.
After winning both the $1M Rolex US Equestrian Open Grand Prix and the FEI World Cup Final at Fort Worth, the EquiRatings Elo rankings have a new world number one. Greya sits at 787 - two points clear of Point Break and United Touch S, who are both on 785. The best horse in the world right now is Kent Farrington's mare.
<a href="https://www.equiratings.com/top-horses/jumping-current" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/7d417a59-af4e-49bc-80dc-d9f08c06de5d.png?width=1434&amp;height=1554" alt="9d Wo1 the Current Top 10 Elo Rated Horses in the World 20 04 2026 "></a>
The climb has been rapid and recent. Greya moved from 777 to 781 after the Rolex US Equestrian Open Grand Prix in Wellington. The World Cup Final in Fort Worth pushed her from 781 to 787. Two major wins in the space of three weeks, and a global ranking to show for it.
Toulayna sits fourth in the world on 783 after her role in Thursday's speed class at Fort Worth. Farrington now holds two of the four highest-rated horses globally.
<a href="https://www.equiratings.com/top-horses/jumping-all-time" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/62ef62a8-848f-482e-a8a7-e1e38ad66462.png?width=1698&amp;height=1662" alt="P1t2o the Top 10 Us Elo Rated Horses of All Time Since 2010 "></a>
It also makes her the highest-rated US horse of all time since EquiRatings began tracking in 2010, clearing the previous US record of 784 held by McLain Ward's HH Azur at her peak in 2018. HH Azur set that bar as a World Cup champion herself, winning on home soil in Omaha in 2017 and claiming multiple WEF five-star Grand Prix including the Week 12 final in 2019. She was the standard for what a US horse could be.&nbsp;Greya has now surpassed it.
<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/categories/jumping" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/eeee484b-ef16-4e10-9de3-6d72b0a7f0c7.png?width=1080&amp;height=161" alt="Read More Jumping"></a>
&nbsp;
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Dressage: Schwartsman Sets a Personal Best at Del Mar</h2>
Next Qualifier: WEC Ocala (April 24)&nbsp;| The Final: Desert Dressage, Thermal CA (November)
Nadine Schwartsman &amp; Royal Flash R won Saturday's CDI3* Grand Prix Freestyle at Del Mar with a 73.675%, marking a personal best for both horse and rider. Almost exactly a year ago, their freestyle debut together produced a 67.990%. Nearly six points of separation in twelve months is no small achievement.
<a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/DXXZr31AAUj/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&amp;igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/72990c18-68c7-47cc-8a80-18273b3b480d.png?width=702&amp;height=847" alt="Screenshot 2026 04 21 101416"></a>
G&uuml;nter Seidel &amp; Equirelle finished second at 71.455%, their second freestyle score of the season after withdrawing from the March qualifier. Kristina Harrison-Antell &amp; Finley were third at 70.730%, a step back toward form after the 68.835% in March that raised questions. Cyndi Jackson &amp; Florisson, who won this class a month ago,&nbsp;were fourth at 68.700%.
<a href="https://us.equestrian-hub.com/public/championship/dressage/708" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/5a83ab82-1eec-4619-8c8a-7baec6a9a488.png?width=709&amp;height=373" alt="Screenshot 2026 04 21 101140"></a>
Schwartsman moves to 12th with 31 points and Jackson to 13th with 29, both with three of four qualifying scores banked. Those are good positions to be in with only seven qualifiers left. The window for anyone outside the top 18 to mount a late campaign is narrowing as the schedule thins into summer. For these two, one more west coast stop remains on the calendar&mdash;the Ginny Rattner Memorial in Oregon&mdash;and that's a straightforward opportunity to solidify or improve upon their leaderboard position.
<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/categories/dressage" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/df3afaab-1f25-4fab-a1dc-c46c608169fb.png?width=1080&amp;height=171" alt="Read More Dressage"></a>
&nbsp;
<h2 data-path-to-node="4">Stay in the loop with The Open Weekly</h2>
Thanks for joining us for this week's edition! Don't forget: a fresh update of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/categories/the-open-weekly" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Open Weekly</a>&nbsp;drops on the site&nbsp;every Tuesday.
<h3 data-path-to-node="9">Join the Conversation</h3>
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<h3>The Mission of the Open&nbsp;</h3>
The US Equestrian Open was born from a strategic&nbsp;Board of Directors decision in 2023 to build a permanent legacy for US&nbsp;Equestrian sport.&nbsp;Its mission is to grow and foster a deeper connection to equestrianism by delivering a premier, unified championship series in the Olympic disciplines.&nbsp; With top-level competition, storytelling, and a dynamic, entertaining experience, the&nbsp;vision is to transform disparate events into a cohesive, narrative-driven season.&nbsp;The series is anchored by&nbsp;core values which include fan-first accessibility, competitive integrity, storytelling, and a dynamic&nbsp;entertaining experience onsite.

The Open Weekly: Weekend wins and Greya is officially the greatest

Five horse-and-rider pairs with averages compressed within four points of each other. No one obviously dominant, and the combination that looks most formidable on paper isn't currently the combination you should trust most. That's the setup heading into this weekend's CDI3* Grand Prix Freestyle qualifier at Del Mar.
<iframe id="datawrapper-chart-LWCI6" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" title="Del Mar National Horse Show: CDI3* Freestyle Stats" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LWCI6/1/" height="528" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" aria-label="Table" data-external="1"></iframe>
G&uuml;nter Seidel and Equirelle lead the field on both average (72.863%) and personal best (76.615%), but those numbers are rosying the picture a bit. The PB dates to November 2021. They've yet to ride a freestyle this season, having withdrawn from the March freestyle at Del Mar after scoring a 61.391% in the Grand Prix the day before. Their most recent scoring freestyle &mdash; a 72.815% at Desert Dressage last December &mdash; represents the high end of what this pair has shown recently, and they've dipped into the 66% range on the other end. That's a wide window to make predictions from. A clean, connected ride puts them squarely in podium conversation, but they&rsquo;ve got to make it down the centerline.&nbsp;
Kristina Harrison-Antell and Finley are a different kind of question. Her FEI freestyle average of nearly 72% and PB of 75.470% &mdash; scored at the US Equestrian Open Finals last November &mdash; signal a combination that has been genuinely competitive at this level in recent memory. But the most recent result complicates that narrative: a 68.835% at this same venue in March, fourth of five, and well off her normal range. It may have been a one-off after four months without a freestyle start. It may not. Either way, this weekend starts to answer that. If the mid-72s version of this pair shows up, they are in the conversation for the win.&nbsp;
Interestingly, the newer partnership of Cyndi Jackson and Florisson might be the most predictable of the class. They won the last Del Mar freestyle at 70.915% &mdash; only their second FEI freestyle together as a combination. The first was a 69.465% in February. A modest body of work, but an upward line nonetheless. If they push above 71% this weekend, they are firmly in podium contention and ahead of schedule for a pair still figuring out what they can be.&nbsp;
Nadine Schwartsman and Royal Flash R finished second in March at 70.835% and have been a steady 69&ndash;70% combination over the past year. Royal Flash R has shown the tools for something bigger; whether this is the weekend that materializes is worth watching.
Claire Robinson and Glamour Boy are the only combination without a prior US Equestrian Open freestyle start, but a personal best of 71.090% suggests they're capable of knocking any number of these riders down a placing or two.
<h2 dir="ltr">Series Standings</h2>
Jackson currently sits 19th with 23 points and Schwartsman 27th with 16; a strong result this weekend moves both meaningfully toward the top-18 qualifying band. For Seidel and Harrison-Antell, who have one qualifier start each, this week alone won't change the picture much either way.

A grey horse and rider in navy show attire competing in a dressage arena at an evening event, with spectators and string lights visible in the background.

Del Mar's April Qualifier Has The Most Interesting Questions

The Series hits its midpoint this weekend with Ocala, FL and Fair Hill, MD running simultaneously - Qualifier 9 in Florida across Friday and Saturday, and Qualifier 10 in Maryland wrapping in a single day on Friday. Ten qualifiers remain after this weekend, plus the $200,000 Final at Morven Park in October.
At the top of the leaderboard, Caroline Pamukcu leads on 145 points, just five ahead of Lucienne Bellissimo on 140. Waylon Roberts sits third on 110. Boyd Martin, William Coleman, and Tamie Smith are all tied fourth on 95.&nbsp;
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Qualifier 9: Ocala</h2>
<a class="underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://usequestrianopen.info/ocala2026/" target="_self">Check out the Fan Guide</a>
Tamie Smith holds the top win chances at Ocala. EquiRatings gives her a huge 46% across her three rides: Jump To Day D,&nbsp;Pierre's Farceur du Bochard, and Spiro P who makes his four-star debut this weekend.
Second in the predictions is Colleen Loach &amp; Chiaro Z Excalibur on 16%. The Canadian combination&nbsp; arrive off the back of a podium finish at TerraNova CCI3*-S and look ready to make an impactful debut at the four-star level.
Jack Curtis &amp; Luska Candy Clover sit third on 12% win chance. They arrive on a strong SJ run: seven consecutive clear international rounds, with the horse's last rail dating all the way back to Plantation Field's CCI3*-S in September 2023.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/860c5942-dcc1-43e5-8000-3c3ad11aa4a3.png?width=1080&amp;height=589" alt="Untitled Design (7)">
Smith's three-horse showing and what it means for the overall Series picture is worth reading in full: <a class="underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="link">Tamie Smith is the EquiRatings favorite to win the 2026 Series</a>.
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Qualifier 10: Fair Hill</h2>
<a href="https://usequestrianopen.info/fairhill2026/">Check out the Fan Guide</a>
Fair Hill returns to the Series calendar for the first time since 2022, and it's Sharon White who leads the predictions. Sharon &amp; Jaguars Duende carry a 25% win chance and 55% podium chance - the strongest numbers in either field this weekend. Despite not seeing Jaguars Duende at this level since May 2025 (where they won), EquiRatings has been flagging this horse as one to watch for a while. Read about how data predicts the future US superstars <a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/the-crystal-ball-how-data-predicts-the-next-generation-of-us-superstars" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here.</a>
Boyd Martin brings two horses with real winning chances. Shanroe Cooley sits second on 16% &mdash; and arrives on a showjumping clear streak &mdash; while&nbsp;Miks Master C is third on 15% and leads the pre-event dressage rankings with a 6RA of 25.6. Boyd has a real chance of beating the venue dressage record (26.3), set by none other than himself, back in 2018 riding Long Island T.
Series leader Caroline Pamukcu brings HSH Double Sixteen on 14%, matching Olivia Dutton &amp;&nbsp;Jewelent at the same mark. While Olivia's father, Phillip Dutton &amp; Denim sit just behind on 13%.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/e80a9f9f-65ee-4b95-b9a6-a1081aae8897.png?width=1080&amp;height=569" alt="Untitled Design (8)">
History at Fair Hill offers a useful reminder: just two of the event's eleven 4*-S winners were leading after dressage. The jumping phases tends to settle it, and only one combination in the event's entire history has made the time cross country. If you had to guess who is capable? EquiRatings would put their money on HSH Double Sixteen (Caroline Pamukcu).
&nbsp;
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The Leaderboard Picture</h2>
At the top of the leaderboard, Caroline Pamukcu leads on 145 points, just five ahead of Lucienne Bellissimo on 140. Waylon Roberts sits third on 110. Boyd Martin, Will Coleman, and Tamie Smith are all tied fourth on 95 - but the points gap is only part of the story.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/3fa98857-d7b3-4cf1-93ee-0367e4e05c1f.png?width=1080&amp;height=801" alt="Untitled Design (9)">
Each rider can count a maximum of six scores across the Series. Caroline&nbsp;Pamukcu has already used five of her six slots; Boyd Martin four. Tamie Smith has used just three, meaning all three of her Ocala entries could add to her tally in full.
Once a rider fills their six slots, future gains only come by beating an existing score - the improvement replaces rather than adds. Tamie Smith's three open slots give her a straightforward path to the top of the leaderboard this weekend. And if not this weekend? Stand by for Kentucky.
<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/the-open-weekly-world-cup-glory-for-farrington-historic-podium-for-simonson" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/797de4a4-a9fd-4ef8-8f83-7253791613fc.png?width=4048&amp;height=577" alt="Us Open Blog Inserts"></a>
<h3 data-path-to-node="9">Join the Conversation</h3>
Follow us for daily highlights, behind-the-scenes content, and live updates:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.instagram.com/usequestrianopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Instagram</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://www.facebook.com/usequestrianopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Facebook</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/useqopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">X (Twitter)</a>
<h3 data-path-to-node="6">Go Beyond the Article</h3>
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Caroline Pamukcu and Tamie Smith cross country

Ocala and Fair Hill run simultaneously as the Series reaches its halfway point

California based, Tamie Smith&rsquo;s moved east for the start of the season and it is playing to her advantage. It&rsquo;s giving her access to bigger fields and therefore bigger points, setting the tone for a serious 2026 Series campaign.
Now she arrives at a defining moment. This weekend at <a href="https://usequestrianopen.info/ocala2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ocala,</a> she arrives with three horses, including the <a href="https://usequestrianopen.info/ocala2026/who-wins--top-scores" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EquiRatings Prediction Centre favorite.</a> Two more enter with strong podium chances. Next week at Kentucky, she brings another three, including both the <a href="https://prediction-centre.equiratings.com/competitions/kentucky_4s_2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">favorite and the second favorite.</a>
That's six horses across two back-to-back qualifiers. And she's only used half her scoring allocation.
<div style="text-align: center; padding: 1.5rem 0;"><a style="display: inline-flex; align-items: center; gap: 10px; background: #185FA5; color: #fff; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 500; padding: 12px 28px; border-radius: 6px; text-decoration: none; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://usequestrianopen.info/ocala2026"> Learn more about Ocala in the Fan Guide </a></div>
<h2 dir="ltr">Where Tamie sits right now</h2>
Tamie is equal 4th in the 2026 Series standings on 95 points. Seems like a big gap to close? It's not.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/741b82fa-462c-4474-9975-e2fc822dfc71.png?width=717&amp;height=513" alt="Screenshot 2026 04 16 105732">
The leader, Caroline Pamukcu has five counting scores. Tamie has three and is only 50 points behind (just one Kentucky win away from matching her!). Of course competitors can improve upon their scores but to do that, they need to beat what they've already posted which is a harder task than simply adding.
At 145 points across five results, Pamukcu's floor is already high. Tamie's three open slots have no floor at all. Every score she adds counts in full. It&rsquo;s not a gap to close, it&rsquo;s an advantage.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/812789df-6b96-4362-8f94-51b264689242.jpg?width=4256&amp;height=2832" alt="Tamie">
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<h2 dir="ltr">The Ocala opportunity</h2>
This weekend in Ocala, Tamie arrives with three horses and holds the top win chance in the field by some distance.
EquiRatings gives Jump To Day D a 28% win chance and a 57% podium chance. No other combination in the field is even close to that number on win chance. Pierre's Farceur du Bochard slots in fourth on a 12% win chance and&nbsp;Spiro P is on a 6% win chance.
Three horses. Three podium shots. Three scores left to count for the leaderboard. The probability of Tamie leaving Florida without additional points on the board is low.
<a href="https://usequestrianopen.info/ocala2026/#page-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/68bf1206-5e83-4549-91b8-19fcac2cda8d.png?width=715&amp;height=486" alt="Screenshot 2026 04 16 122320"></a>
<h2 dir="ltr">The Kentucky chance</h2>
Whatever Tamie takes out of Florida, Kentucky gives her a second chance to build on it.
The points scale shifts at Kentucky. With a field of over 25 starters, every placing pays more. Tamie doesn't even have to improve her finishing position to improve her points, the same result is simply worth more.
And if Ocala goes quietly? It doesn't matter. She still arrives with three experienced horses, three open slots, and both the favorite and second favorite on the&nbsp;<a href="https://prediction-centre.equiratings.com/competitions/kentucky_4s_2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Prediction Centre.</a>
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/f4c60395-4300-4ffc-a11d-a722b69c73c4.png?width=717&amp;height=397" alt="Points Scale for Blog Inserts">
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<h2 dir="ltr">The huge string behind her</h2>
Tamie's string is one of the biggest in the US at the four-star level right now. Looking at her 2025 and 2026 results &mdash; and setting aside Jutopia (Molly Duda's horse, on whom she did one run) and the retired&nbsp;Mai Baum &mdash; she has seven horses competing at the level, one of which makes their four-star debut at Ocala this weekend.
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The string is not just large, it's in form. Tamie has already won five international events in 2026, more than any other rider globally. Only one of those wins has come at four-star level, but the volume and consistency across the board points to a rider hitting her stride at the right time.
The finishing score data backs it up. Among US athletes at the four-star level over the last 12 months, Tamie sits atop of the EquiRatings power* rankings with an average of 29.8 - the only US rider to break the sub-30 barrier.&nbsp; *The Power average is calculated from the three best finishing scores recorded by an athlete, meaning it strips out the outliers and measures sustained quality.&nbsp;
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<h2 dir="ltr">The West Coast factor</h2>
After Kentucky, the calendar likely takes Tamie home. She's normally California-based, and while she has made the journey east for the early season qualifiers in the lead up to Kentucky weekend and likely, to make a statement before Aachen - but what matters for the Series is what follows.
The late summer West Coast events of Rebecca Farm (July 15), Twin Rivers (September 17), and Woodside (October 2) bring smaller fields &mdash; and a smaller points scale &mdash; but wins and podiums are more attainable than they are in the wide-open fields of Carolina and Kentucky. Multiple horses on home turf makes that a realistic expectation, not just a possibility.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/b4b1426e-0fc3-45ba-89be-28e45c559c5e.jpg?width=5172&amp;height=5606" alt="Kynan Kentucky 2024 Er Tamie Smith 3949">
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<h2 dir="ltr">The Call</h2>
This weekend will see qualifier 9 and 10 take place marking the halfway point with only 10 more to go. The EquiRatings model has Tamie as favorite and second favorite to win qualifier 9 and 11. She has more open scoring potential than anyone above her on the leaderboard.
Here is the EquiRatings prediction: Tamie Smith wins the 2026 US Equestrian Open of Eventing Series.
<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/the-open-weekly-world-cup-glory-for-farrington-historic-podium-for-simonson" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/797de4a4-a9fd-4ef8-8f83-7253791613fc.png?width=4048&amp;height=577" alt="Us Open Blog Inserts"></a>
<h3 data-path-to-node="9">Join the Conversation</h3>
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<h3 data-path-to-node="6">Go Beyond the Article</h3>
Catch the latest insights and expert interviews on the&nbsp;<a href="https://sites.libsyn.com/559710" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US Equestrian Open Podcast.</a>&nbsp;

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