<h2 dir="ltr">Eventing: Pamukcu and HSH Connor Win at Bouckaert as the Series Leaderboard Tightens</h2>
Next Qualifier: Carolina International | Countdown: 1 Week
Bouckaert has always been a course that is tight on time. Of 207 starters in the event's history, just 2% have ever beaten the clock on the cross country and this weekend was no exception. The fastest time of the day belonged to Tamie Smith and Ferrie&rsquo;s Cello, who still added 14.8 time penalties. No one even got close. Although, this may have been partly by design for some combinations - an early-season run to build fitness, test strength, or a steady step on the road to Kentucky.
<h3 dir="ltr">Caroline Pamukcu &amp; HSH Connor</h3>
Caroline Pamukcu and HSH Connor took the win of the first 2026 eventing qualifier. Fourth after dressage on 29.8, third after show jumping, and then incrementally faster cross country than the combinations ahead of them. It was a win built on accumulation rather than any single defining moment.
It was HSH Connor's ninth consecutive show jumping clear, a run that stretches back to 2023 without a pole down. It was also their first win at the four-star level together and Pamukcu's eighth CCI4*-S career win, across five different horses.&nbsp;
Pamukcu also finished 4th with HSH Double Sixteen and 6th with King&rsquo;s Especiale, moving her onto 80 points and into a tie with Lucienne Bellissimo who led the Series over the winter break.
<a href="https://equestrian-hub-usef.pages.dev/us-equestrian-open" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/e5e51b2e-03a5-44a3-819a-0bba7cfa767c.png?width=1240&amp;height=714" alt="Vld71 Current Leaderboard of the Us Equestrian Open of Eventing "></a>
<h3 dir="ltr">Boyd Martin &amp; Commando 3&nbsp;</h3>
Boyd Martin and Commando 3 led after dressage on 26.4 and held that position through show jumping, only slipping to second when cross-country time penalties proved costlier than Pamukcu&rsquo;s. It is still a strong result&nbsp; and the start of a season that will likely see them on the road to the World Championships in Aachen. Martin also placed fifth with Cooley Nutcracker and seventh with Fetiche Des Rouges which puts Boyd second in the Series standing.
<h3 dir="ltr">Buck Davidson &amp; Cooley Candyman&nbsp;</h3>
Third place went to Buck Davidson and Cooley Candyman. Their 30.5 dressage score was their standout moment of the weekend, scoring a full three marks better than their 6RA of 33.5. Of Cooley Candyman&rsquo;s 14 top-level starts (CCI4* and CCI5*), this ranks as his joint second-best test. That dressage performance is what kept them in contention on a weekend when the jumping phases offered very little room to gain ground.
Carolina International is only a week away. With over 25 entries, increased Series points are on offer and Bellissimo, Pamukcu and Martin are all in the field. The gap at the top is now zero and it&rsquo;s very unlikely to stay that way.
&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/categories/eventing" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/254e09dd-d92e-4194-986b-baf0dbd8460b.png?width=1080&amp;height=158" alt="Read More Eventing"></a>
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<h2 dir="ltr">Jumping: The Final Five-Star Before the Final</h2>
The US Equestrian Open Final: Wellington, Week 12 | Countdown: 2 Weeks
Three CSI5* Grand Prix have now been contested at Wellington this season. Three different winners from three different nations. Germany's Richard Vogel and Gangster Montdesir opened with a win in Week 5. McLain Ward and High Star Hero won for the US in Week 7. And on Saturday night, Darragh Kenny and Eddy Blue claimed Week 9 for Ireland - the last five-star of the WEF season before the Rolex US Equestrian Open Grand Prix in Week 12.
<h3 dir="ltr">Darragh Kenny &amp; Eddy Blue</h3>
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/33facec0-5c75-4203-945b-6c5d4d5f44c2.jpg?width=3837&amp;height=2558" alt="Darragh Kenny (alamy)">
Darragh Kenny and Eddy Blue had been placed at this venue before but Saturday night was their first outright Wellington Grand Prix win together. It was also their second CSI5* Grand Prix victory as a partnership, having won the World Cup of London in 2024.
The jump-off margin was fine: 41.77 seconds against a target of 41.92. Kenny left a stride out in the first line, a calculated risk with a horse he trusts implicitly.&nbsp;
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/ff159226-6740-4662-865e-4fadff636989.png?width=1080&amp;height=1033" alt="He&rsquo;s Been Second and Third Here [at Wef] and Placed in a Lot of Five Stars, but to Finally Win One Here Is Really Deserving for the Horse&mdash;he&rsquo;s an Incredible Athlete. (1)">
<h3 dir="ltr">A Rare Tie for Second&nbsp;</h3>
The jump-off produced something that almost never happens at this level. Marilyn Little and La Contessa set the target at 41.92 seconds as the pathfinder. Six rounds later, Thaisa Erwin and Hialita B crossed the line in an identical time. A dead heat for second place. It is the first time in nearly four years that a CSI5* Grand Prix produced a tie for second place. The last occasion was Hamburg 2022, where Andr&eacute; Thieme and Michael Pender matched each other in second.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/7e4f957d-ea55-4942-83db-776fa4243f8a.jpeg?width=1280&amp;height=902" alt="Iw Wellington Nations Cup 334">
For Marilyn Little and La Contessa, it was a first CSI5* podium together, though the underlying form has been building. This pair have jumped clear in each of their last five five-star Grands Prix.&nbsp;
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/25ad67fa-e5b3-4a8a-93da-f6dc493d29c2.png?width=1080&amp;height=1131" alt="He&rsquo;s Been Second and Third Here [at Wef] and Placed in a Lot of Five Stars, but to Finally Win One Here Is Really Deserving for the Horse&mdash;he&rsquo;s an Incredible Athlete. (3)">
For Thaisa Erwin, it was a landmark on two counts. Not only a first five-star podium with&nbsp;Hialita B, but the first time since 2010 that an Australian rider has stood on a WEF five-star Grand Prix podium.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/56316210-0d3a-45fc-af53-4ff14e36ac4e.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="He&rsquo;s Been Second and Third Here [at Wef] and Placed in a Lot of Five Stars, but to Finally Win One Here Is Really Deserving for the Horse&mdash;he&rsquo;s an Incredible Athlete. (4)">
All three competitors who finished on the podium confirmed they are aiming for the Rolex US Equestrian Open Grand Prix in Week 12. The form lines are close. The final is just two and a half weeks away.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/d1aa678a-c249-4dce-b0ed-9f6dca54ebf0.png?width=1080&amp;height=1269" alt="He&rsquo;s Been Second and Third Here [at Wef] and Placed in a Lot of Five Stars, but to Finally Win One Here Is Really Deserving for the Horse&mdash;he&rsquo;s an Incredible Athlete. (2)">
<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/categories/jumping" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/eeee484b-ef16-4e10-9de3-6d72b0a7f0c7.png?width=1080&amp;height=161" alt="Read More Jumping"></a>
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<h2 dir="ltr">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 dir="ltr">Dressage: Darnell and Harrold S Find Their Form at WEC</h2>
Next Qualifier: Wellington AGDF 10 - CDI-W | The Final: Desert Dressage, Thermal CA (November)
Claire Darnell and Harrold S won Saturday's freestyle at WEC in Ocala with a strong showing. Darnell posted 74.315%, topping four of five judges and sitting second only from the judge at B. It's her best result of the season, and the closest she's looked to the 77% version of herself we've been waiting to see this season. The class finished with three combinations after withdrawals in both the Grand Prix and the freestyle, but that doesn't diminish what Darnell and Harrold S put on the board.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/d521ae2f-c76b-418c-b329-4e296336d150.png?width=909&amp;height=1102" alt="Screenshot 2026 03 10 120205">
The fight for second and third came down to five hundredths of a point. Leonardo Antonio Godoy and Marques Do Lis took second at 70.390%, with Charlotte Osborne and Fruhlingszauber at 70.340% in third. Osborne's only judge win came at B, where she edged out the rest of the field with a 70.975%. On the leaderboard, Godoy moves to fifth with 33 points, a significant jump for a partnership that now has three of four counting starts. Osborne climbs to a tied eighth on 29 points.
<a href="https://equestrian-hub-usef.pages.dev/us-equestrian-open" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/0c7d2dc9-3c7c-4fd8-ad69-30ae5af6ce48.png?width=1240&amp;height=714" alt="Dnod U Current Leaderboard of the Us Equestrian Open of Dressage "></a>
For Darnell, the win moves her to 35 points on the season, drawing level with Brittany Fraser-Beaulieu for third overall. The Series heads to Wellington next week for the final CDI-W qualifier, where names like Ben Ebeling and Kevin Kohmann are expected on the entry list.
<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/categories/dressage" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/df3afaab-1f25-4fab-a1dc-c46c608169fb.png?width=1080&amp;height=171" alt="Read More Dressage"></a>
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<h2 data-path-to-node="4">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 data-path-to-node="4">Stay in the Loop with The Open Weekly</h2>
Thanks for joining us for this week's edition! Don't forget: a fresh update of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/categories/the-open-weekly" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Open Weekly</a>&nbsp;drops on the site&nbsp;every Tuesday.
<h3 data-path-to-node="9">Join the Conversation</h3>
Follow us for daily highlights, behind-the-scenes content, and live updates:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.instagram.com/usequestrianopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Instagram</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://www.facebook.com/usequestrianopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Facebook</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/useqopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">X (Twitter)</a>
<h3 data-path-to-node="6">Go Beyond the Article</h3>
Catch the latest insights and expert interviews on the&nbsp;<a href="https://sites.libsyn.com/559710" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US Equestrian Open Podcast</a>.

Open Weekly Graphic with Caroline Pamukcu

The Open Weekly: Pamukcu, Kenny, and Darnell Take Wins Across the Disciplines

1. Jumping

All you need to know

Wellington CSI5* Grand Prix

2. Eventing

Morven Park CCI4*-L

3. Dressage

Desert CDI5* Freestyle

The 2026 Finals

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Predictions & entry stats for the eventing qualifiers

Fan Guides

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Live coverage & entertainment

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Jumpers will contest their Final soon!

The Upcoming Final

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Main

Three weeks from now, Wellington International will host the Rolex US Equestrian Open Final, the climax of a 12 weeks of showjumping at WEF. But before that, there is one more five-star Grand Prix to run. Saturday night's CSI5* $500,000 Bainbridge Companies Grand Prix is the last chance for combinations to prove they are arriving to Week 12 with momentum, form, and a statement already made under the lights.
It is also, historically, a Grand Prix that makes new stars. Eight of the last ten winners were claiming their first-ever CSI5* Grand Prix victory when they crossed the timers in Wellington. The course is tougher than almost anywhere else on the global circuit with a 16% Round 1 clear rate over the past decade, against a global five-star average of 28&ndash;35%. Whoever wins here on Saturday night will have earned it.
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<h2 dir="ltr">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 dir="ltr">Who are the US Contenders?</h2>
Kent Farrington &amp; Greya are the form combination of the WEF season and arguably one of the most in-form combinations in the world right now. Greya is currently the third-highest rated horse globally on the EquiRatings Elo system and will be the ones the rest of the field are measuring themselves against. Together, this partnership have nine five-star Grand Prix and carry a 58% predicted clear probability tonight, the highest in the field. Their jump-off record is equally imposing: 11 clears from 15, nine wins, a 60% win rate once they reach the second round. A win here would be the perfect statement of intent ahead of the Open Final.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/e906ea7f-bd51-44a6-8ee7-1fd12b2d4106.png?width=1362&amp;height=1488" alt="X6d Ek Wef 9 the Ones on Form ">
Marilyn Little &amp; La Contessa are the form horse of the US squad coming into this week. Four clears from their last five rounds at five-star level. This is an 80% strike rate, the highest recent clear rate of any combination in tonight's field. Most recently, they jumped a double clear in last weekend's CSIO4* Nations Cup that helped seal Team USA's victory. Little has been building quietly and convincingly.&nbsp;
McLain Ward &amp; High Star Hero already have their Week 7 5* 160 Grand Prix win on the board this season. In a jump off, they remain one of the most dangerous combinations in the field. Six clears from eight jump-offs, four wins, a 63% podium rate. Ward's experience in a speed round is a known quantity at this level. Their Round 1 clear rate of 43% suggests the first round can be a slightly bigger hurdle than for some of their rivals but if they make the jump-off, the numbers say they are very likely to finish on the podium.
Laura Kraut &amp; Bisquetta bring five-star pedigree and experience. A 52% clear rate at this level, a Rolex Grand Prix of Dublin win, and a 47% predicted clear probability tonight. Bisquetta has already shown she can jump clear when a course asks hard questions and this one will.
Callie Schott &amp; Garant are perhaps the quietest name in the US group, but the data is not quiet. An Elo rating of 752, a double clear in last weekend's CSIO4* Nations Cup, and a 44% predicted clear probability. Garant is one of the highest-rated horses in the field and Schott's composure on course has been consistent throughout the season. A strong result here would add real weight to their Week 12 credentials.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/8e07536e-28ef-4029-ba97-5415ac650bf6.png?width=1362&amp;height=1488" alt="X6d Ek Wef 9 the Ones on Form (1)">
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<h2 dir="ltr">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 dir="ltr">Who are the International Threats?</h2>
The US does not have this to itself. Darragh Kenny &amp; Eddy Blue sit second in predicted clear probability at 56%, fractionally behind Farrington. Eddy Blue's 58% non-jump-off clear rate at this level is elite. They sit only behind Farrington on the EquiRatings Prediction Centre with a 9% win chance. Daniel Bluman &amp; Corbie V.V. arrive with momentum: eight clears in their last nine top-level starts, a CSI4* Grand Prix win in Ocala as their most recent outing, and a 64% clear rate over 14 rounds. In a jump-off, Bluman is a proven operator. Their win probability sits equal to Bisquetta and Dallas Vegas Batilly. This is a combination that cannot be written off.
Ben Maher &amp; Katanga V/h Dingeshof represent the broadest five-star CV in the international group. Seven jump-off clears from 13 (54%), nearly half resulting in a podium. The 2024 Olympic gold medallist partnership is competing in their first five-star Grand Prix of 2026 - rustiness or sharpness, Saturday night will tell.&nbsp;
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Forty combinations are set to start. EquiRatings predicts six clear rounds, well below the global five-star average, in a class that has consistently delivered a small, hard-fought jump-off. Around 51% of those who make it to the second round have historically gone double clear here. The margin between winning and the rest is rarely more than a fraction of a second.
Three weeks from now, the US Equestrian Open Final takes centre stage. Before that, Saturday night in Wellington offers the last word in the five-star conversation and the combinations who deliver it will carry that confidence into Week 12.

Who to Watch at Wellington Week 9

The dressage and show jumping phases are done. Now comes the part that defines Bouckaert.
Historically, this course rewards the bold. Just 67% of Bouckaert's 247 starters have jumped cross-country clear, all time, and only 2% have done so inside the time. Saturday will separate the serious competitors from the field.
<a style="display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 12px; width: fit-content; margin: 0 auto; background-color: #002147; color: #ffffff; text-decoration: none; padding: 14px 28px; border: 2px solid #002147; font-family: 'Georgia', serif; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.06em; font-weight: normal; text-transform: uppercase; transition: background-color 0.2s ease, color 0.2s ease; cursor: pointer;" href="https://usequestrianopen.info/bouckaertmarch2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">&nbsp; Bouckaert Fan Guide</a>
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The Most Consistent Cross Country Jumpers</h2>
At the top of EquiRatings' cross-country rankings sits Boyd Martin and Commando 3, who also leads the pre-event predictions with a 20% win chance - the highest in the field. His adjusted XC figure of +33% is the standout number among the jumpers, reflecting a horse who consistently clears more than the courses he faces would suggest. Last year, Commando 3 had to podiums at the five-star level and is a known quantity at the sharp end of big events.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/54aa9698-d765-4307-af12-f1160e6c57fc.png?width=1021&amp;height=1322" alt=" Bouckaert Spring 2026 Insta Size (4)">
Second in the rankings is Phelps and Mia Farley, whose adjusted figure of +31% trails only Commando 3. In 20 international starts, Phelps has only ever picked up cross country penalties once. He has jumped clear on some of the toughest courses in the sport; Morven Park 4*L, Maryland 5*, Kentucky 5*, and many more.
Third in the rankings is Lainey Ashker and Lovedance, with an adjusted figure of +30%. The caveat is that those numbers are built largely on their 3* record as the pair have only contested one CCI4*-S together, which ended in elimination. However, with two wins and two third-place finishes across three years of international competition, the talent is clear. The question now is whether they can translate that form into a clean four-star run at Bouckaert today.
Fourth in the rankings is Ali Kuhn and Little Hail, with an adjusted figure of +27%. The 15.1hh OTTB, who is instantly recognisable in their signature pink cross-country colours, captured hearts at last year's Kentucky 4* with a clear round, and this weekend they contest their second four-star at Bouckaert.
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<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The Fastest Horses in the Field</h2>
<div style="overflow: hidden;"><img style="float: right; margin: 0 0 16px 24px; width: 340px; height: auto;" src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/7886516b-dd2c-49fb-8b3d-8e1d7352c6de.png?width=643&amp;height=1350" alt="Bouckaert Spring 2026">
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Topping the speed rankings are Phelps and Mia Farley and HSH Double Sixteen ridden by Caroline Pamukcu, both with a Top Speed Percentage of 94%.&nbsp;
Few horses in eventing carry the reputation Phelps does on a cross country course. The iconic thoroughbred announced himself to the wider world at the Maryland 5* in 2023 as the only horse inside the time, a result that placed him in the top 10. The last time this combination contested Bouckaert (2024), Mia used the event as a prep run for Kentucky, carrying 22 time penalties in a deliberately measured round. Whether their plan is to go fast or slow, it is always a pleasure to see a fan favourite like Phelps back out on a cross-country course.
HSH Double Sixteen's speed credentials come with impressive records behind them. The pair were clear inside the time at Stable View's CCI4*-S last September, becoming just the second combination in the past five years to achieve it at that event. That performance helped secure the win, making HSH Double Sixteen one of only two horses to record two qualifier victories in the 2025 Series - the first coming at this very event exactly 12 months ago. They proved their speed again at the US Equestrian Open Final at Morven Park, where they were the first combination of the day to finish inside the time.
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<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The Numbers Behind Saturday</h2>
Of the last ten Bouckaert winners, the cross country phase has been the decisive factor. Just 2% of all starters have ever gone clear and inside the time here, a stark reminder of what the course asks.
The historical XC clear rate sits at 67%, meaning roughly one in three starters will pick up cross-country jumping faults. Whether the leaders from Friday hold their positions,&nbsp; or whether the course reshuffles the deck entirely, is the story of Saturday.
The action begins at 12:10 p.m. EST. Watch live and free on the USEF Network.
<a style="display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 12px; width: fit-content; margin: 0 auto; background-color: #002147; color: #ffffff; text-decoration: none; padding: 14px 28px; border: 2px solid #002147; font-family: 'Georgia', serif; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.06em; font-weight: normal; text-transform: uppercase; transition: background-color 0.2s ease, color 0.2s ease; cursor: pointer;" href="https://usequestrianopen.info/bouckaertmarch2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">&nbsp; Bouckaert Fan Guide</a>
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"><a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/the-open-weekly-bouckaert-opens-vaughn-takes-the-lead-and-cook-shines-at-wef" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/797de4a4-a9fd-4ef8-8f83-7253791613fc.png?width=4048&amp;height=577" alt="Us Open Blog Inserts"></a></h2>
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<section class="wysiwyg col-span-12 lg:col-span-6 lg:col-start-4">
<h2 dir="ltr">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 dir="ltr">Follow the US Equestrian Open of Eventing</h2>
Check out the full Series calendar below and stay connected with the latest news and standings on<a href="https://www.facebook.com/usequestrianopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&nbsp;Facebook</a>&nbsp;and<a href="https://www.instagram.com/usequestrianopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&nbsp;Instagram.&nbsp;</a>Use #USEqOpen to join the conversation.
Also follow US Equestrian on<a href="https://www.facebook.com/USequestrian" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&nbsp;Facebook</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.instagram.com/usequestrian/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Instagram</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@usequestrian" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TikTok</a>, and&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/usequestrian" target="_blank" rel="noopener">X (Twitter)</a>.&nbsp;
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<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/c9dfe039-3b02-415d-b513-c5bd87d85dae.jpeg?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="26 Open Eventing Qualifier Calendar">
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For Sport Department questions, please contact Christy Hawkins at&nbsp;<a href="mailto:USEquestrianOpen@usef.org">USEquestrianOpen@usef.org</a>.
For media inquiries about the US Equestrian Open Series, please contact Carly Weilminster at&nbsp;<a href="mailto:cweilminster@usef.org">cweilminster@usef.org</a>.&nbsp;
For sponsorship opportunities, contact Layson Griffin at&nbsp;<a href="mailto:lgriffin@usef.org">lgriffin@usef.org</a>.
</section>

Cross Country day at Bouckaert Farm

The US Equestrian Open of Eventing begins! The action begins in Bouckaert this weekend and with it comes a maximum points opportunity: more than 25 horses are entered at the CCI4*-S, meaning 50 points are on offer for the winner.
<a style="display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 12px; width: fit-content; margin: 0 auto; background-color: #002147; color: #ffffff; text-decoration: none; padding: 14px 28px; border: 2px solid #002147; font-family: 'Georgia', serif; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.06em; font-weight: normal; text-transform: uppercase; transition: background-color 0.2s ease, color 0.2s ease; cursor: pointer;" href="https://usequestrianopen.info/bouckaertmarch2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">&nbsp; Bouckaert Fan Guide &mdash; How to Follow</a>
The dressage phase kicks off Friday at 8:30 a.m., with show jumping later that afternoon at 1:15 p.m. Cross-country takes place Saturday at 12:10 p.m (All times are EST).
Fans can follow all the action live and for free on the USEF Network livestream.
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<h3 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">&nbsp;</h3>
<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Dressage</h2>
<img style="float: right; margin: 0 0 16px 24px; width: 340px; height: auto;" src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/05520aa7-6bab-471e-ab3d-cc369e18abfb.png?width=784&amp;height=1308" alt="Bouckaert Spring 2026">
Based on EquiRatings' 6RA (the average of a horse's last six FEI dressage scores) Isabelle Bosley's Conner heads the entire field with a 6RA of 24.9. In Conner's eight international starts, he has never scored above 30.0 in dressage. His most recent outing was a win at the CCI3*-L at Maryland in October, where he posted a 24.8. He is only nine years old and is moving up to the four-star short level for the first time this weekend.
That step up matters. The CCI4*-S test introduces greater complexity and difficulty, including flying changes, which Conner has not been asked to perform in international competition before. Whether he can carry his exceptional dressage form into a harder test is one of the key questions of Friday morning. The potential is clearly there. And if he does delivers, the venue record could be under threat. The best score ever recorded here is a 25.1 from Buck Davidson and Carlevo in 2022.
Boyd Martin enters four horses in the field, and his Commando 3 ranks second in dressage with a 6RA of 27.6. Commando 3 finished on the podium twice at five-star level last year and is a known quantity at this level. Martin and Commando 3 carry a 20% win chance heading into the weekend, the highest in the field.
Just three of the last 10 Bouckaert winners were leading after dressage. The course here has consistently exerted itself in the jumping phases. In fact, only one combination in the entire history of the Bouckaert CCI4*-S, across 280 starters, has ever finished on their dressage score. That was Jacob Fletcher and Atlantic Domino in 2018, who set the Bouckaert record finishing score of 30.0. A record that still stands.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/2700730d-9a02-48ad-9508-3dc6877c0239.png?width=1080&amp;height=614" alt=" Bouckaert Spring 2026 Insta Size (2)">
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<h2 class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Show Jumping</h2>
Show jumping follows immediately after dressage on Friday afternoon. To find the best showjumpers in the field, each horse is ranked using three numbers. First, each horse&rsquo;s average jumping penalties from their last six FEI runs. That figure is then compared to the average penalties recorded by all competitors over those same courses, to reflect how difficult the tracks were. The final number adjusts the horse&rsquo;s average against the course average. The lower the figure, the better. It shows a horse jumping better than the overall level of difficulty would suggest.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/efa0d720-d373-4960-b8cc-82528926dbcc.png?width=949&amp;height=1154" alt=" Bouckaert Spring 2026 Insta Size (3)">
Based on this, the top-ranked show jumper in the field is Zachary Brandt and Direct Advance, with an adjusted SJ average of -3.9. Direct Advance has been among the most consistent performers having not&nbsp; knocked a rail since 2023, and even then it was a single pole. He is likely to sit back from the dressage standings, meaning a demanding show jumping course is exactly what he'll be hoping for.
Caroline Pamukcu and HSH Connor rank second at -3.6, and HSH Connor brings the longest incoming clear streak in the field: eight consecutive international show jumping rounds without a pole. This partnership also carry a 10% win chance, second only to Boyd Martin.&nbsp;
The historical clear rate at Bouckaert is 35%. 94 of 268 starters have gone clear with no jump or time faults. However, it can vary by year: 2021 saw 15 combinations go clear, while 2016 produced none. Show jumping here is not a formality. Of the last eight show jumping leaders, four went on to win, suggesting it is a significant but not decisive lead indicator.&nbsp;
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Bouckaert Begins: Who to Watch on Friday

Claire Darnell is the statistical favorite heading into Saturday's qualifier in Ocala. She averages 73% across six FEI starts, and no one else in this field is consistently above 71. A win moves her to 35 points on the season, tying Brittany Fraser-Beaulieu for third overall.
That said, Darnell and Harrold S haven't hit peak form yet this season. Their two 2026 starts came in at 70.560% and 73.450% &mdash; one sitting a full three points below their average, the other just at it. Neither remotely approaching the 77% PB that gives her this much separation from the field. If Saturday is the day they finally start pulling that average back up, it won't be a close class. If it isn't, the placings become considerably more interesting.
<iframe id="datawrapper-chart-axBwn" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" title="Grand Prix Freestyle Stats: WEC Ocala March CDI3*" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/axBwn/1/" height="515" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" aria-label="Table" data-external="1"></iframe>
<h2 dir="ltr">An Unknown Variable</h2>
This weekend, Shelly Francis makes her FEI freestyle debut with Estero, and it's the most interesting variable on the entry list. Their one USEF score puts them within podium range, of course with the caveat that one national result doesn't tell you much about how the FEI test will score. CDI judging can cut both ways: the panel tends to be sharper, but the atmosphere often brings something out in horses that the scores reflect. Whether Estero is that kind of horse is exactly what Saturday is for.
<h2 dir="ltr">The Supporting Cast</h2>
Leonardo Antonio Godoy and Marques Do Lis are also worth watching. Two starts is a thin sample, but both came this season in the Series and they're averaging 71%, second in this field behind Darnell. Currently sitting ninth on the overall leaderboard, a solid finish Saturday likely moves them into the top five.
Charlotte Osborne and Fruhlingszauber are still early in their freestyle career together, having done their first last November. Osborne's PB of 70.775% came at the January Ocala show &mdash; the same day Darnell had one of her below-average starts &mdash; and she averages just under that across three tests. Third is where the data puts her.
Micaela Mabraga&ntilde;a and Belatrix Rh average 68.2% across three Series starts.

Close up of dressage saddle with rider in it

Darnell Enters WEC as Favorite, With Caveats

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