Thanksgiving Table Talk: Five US Equestrian Open Storylines to Debate Over Dessert

Two qualifiers down, a winter break ahead, and a leaderboard that's begging for debate. Here are five storylines guaranteed to spark arguments more entertaining than anything happening on the TV in the other room.

1. Is the Leaderboard Safe… or Living on Borrowed Time?

Lucienne Bellissimo sits pretty at the top with 80 points. Will Coleman's right behind with 60. Waylon Roberts rounds out the podium at 55. 

And here's the thing nobody at the table wants to hear: the top three finishers from last year's series haven't even competed yet. Boyd Martin, Phillip Dutton, and Caroline Pamukcu are all sitting at zero and they're not exactly short on firepower.

The numbers tell the story. Caroline Pamukcu logged 31 runs across 7 horses at the top level in 2025. Boyd Martin had 24 runs with 9 horses. Phillip Dutton? 17 runs, 5 horses. Compare that to Lucienne's 13 runs with 3 horses, or Will's 10 runs with 4.

More horses means more chances to place. More runs means more opportunities to stack points. And that's just their current strings - it is likely that there is horses waiting in the wings ready to step up.

So is Lucienne safe? Is Will? The honest answer: probably not yet. When riders with that kind of depth come out after the winter break, 80 points might start looking less like a cushion and more like a head start that's about to evaporate.

The debate: Does early momentum matter or does string depth win out in the end?

2. Will Riders Change Their Tactics for Series Points in 2026?

Let's take a look at how Boyd Martin won it last year. He started the 2025 series at Bouckaert in March with modest points. Then came Stable View in the spring: +130 points. The Fork followed: +120 points. By the end of the season, he'd rocketed to 260 and the winner's check.

Notice a pattern? Those big point gains came at events with larger fields. The scoring system rewards depth of competition - qualifiers with more than 25 starters offer 50 points for first place, while smaller fields cap out at 40.

So here's the question: will riders start targeting the bigger events specifically for points? If you know a qualifier is going to draw a deep field, does it make sense to aim your best horse there rather than a smaller competition where the math doesn't work as well in your favor?

The debate: Is strategic event selection the key to the series, or does it overcomplicate things?

3. Which Rider Has the Most Pressure Heading into 2026?

Let's run through some of the candidates.

Boyd Martin – The defending champion of both the series and the final. He's got a target on his back and everyone's coming for him. 

Will Coleman – That pole. You know the one. The rail that handed Boyd the win. Does redemption fuel him or haunt him?

Phillip Dutton – Led the series right until the bitter end, then watched Boyd pip him at the post. 

Lucienne Bellissimo – Currently leading the 2026 standings. She's put herself in the spotlight, can she handle it?

Tamie Smith – Mai Baum's retirement leaving a hole in Tamie's string and an aim to recreate those results with other horses. 

The debate: Whose pressure is heaviest - the defending champ, the current leader, or another contender?

4. If You Could Buy Stock in One Rider for the Rest of the Season… Who Would It Be?

Time to put your money where your mouth is. With $25,000 on the line for the series winner and $200,000 for the final, your portfolio better be right.

The Blue Chip: Boyd Martin – Safe money, solid returns.

The Growth Stock: Caroline Pamukcu –  Zero points so far but a huge string - very likely surge up the standings.

The Value Play: Waylon Roberts – Sitting third with 55 points, he's already on the board while the big guns are still on the sidelines.

The Speculative Buy: Lucienne Bellissimo – She's proven she can score points but with a smaller string than the Americans chasing her, there is no margin for error.

The debate: Who do you invest in and who do you short?

5. Who's the Next Breakout Star of the Series?

Last season gave us two young horses we couldn't stop talking about. Sharon White's Jaguars Duende, just nine years old, stepped up to the 4* level and looked like he belonged there from day one. Kim Severson's Cooley Corraghy Diamond did the same at eight. 

So who's next?

The 2025 season saw some top-class performances from seven-year-olds at the 3* level on US soil. Sharon White tops the board with Arden Augustus, posting an HPR of 87 at The Fork at Tryon in May. Caroline Pamukcu's HSH Talbots Hill matched that mark at TerraNova.

One of these ten could be next years superstar.

The debate: Which young horse do you think makes the biggest splash in 2026?

Pass the Pie, Keep the Debate Going

That's your Thanksgiving cheat sheet. Five storylines, endless arguments, and a winter break to let the anticipation build.

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