Cross Country day at Bouckaert Farm

The dressage and show jumping phases are done. Now comes the part that defines Bouckaert.

Historically, this course rewards the bold. Just 67% of Bouckaert's 247 starters have jumped cross-country clear, all time, and only 2% have done so inside the time. Saturday will separate the serious competitors from the field.

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The Most Consistent Cross Country Jumpers

At the top of EquiRatings' cross-country rankings sits Boyd Martin and Commando 3, who also leads the pre-event predictions with a 20% win chance - the highest in the field. His adjusted XC figure of +33% is the standout number among the jumpers, reflecting a horse who consistently clears more than the courses he faces would suggest. Last year, Commando 3 had to podiums at the five-star level and is a known quantity at the sharp end of big events.

Second in the rankings is Phelps and Mia Farley, whose adjusted figure of +31% trails only Commando 3. In 20 international starts, Phelps has only ever picked up cross country penalties once. He has jumped clear on some of the toughest courses in the sport; Morven Park 4*L, Maryland 5*, Kentucky 5*, and many more.

Third in the rankings is Lainey Ashker and Lovedance, with an adjusted figure of +30%. The caveat is that those numbers are built largely on their 3* record as the pair have only contested one CCI4*-S together, which ended in elimination. However, with two wins and two third-place finishes across three years of international competition, the talent is clear. The question now is whether they can translate that form into a clean four-star run at Bouckaert today.

Fourth in the rankings is Ali Kuhn and Little Hail, with an adjusted figure of +27%. The 15.1hh OTTB, who is instantly recognisable in their signature pink cross-country colours, captured hearts at last year's Kentucky 4* with a clear round, and this weekend they contest their second four-star at Bouckaert.

The Fastest Horses in the Field

 

Topping the speed rankings are Phelps and Mia Farley and HSH Double Sixteen ridden by Caroline Pamukcu, both with a Top Speed Percentage of 94%. 

Few horses in eventing carry the reputation Phelps does on a cross country course. The iconic thoroughbred announced himself to the wider world at the Maryland 5* in 2023 as the only horse inside the time, a result that placed him in the top 10. The last time this combination contested Bouckaert (2024), Mia used the event as a prep run for Kentucky, carrying 22 time penalties in a deliberately measured round. Whether their plan is to go fast or slow, it is always a pleasure to see a fan favourite like Phelps back out on a cross-country course.

HSH Double Sixteen's speed credentials come with impressive records behind them. The pair were clear inside the time at Stable View's CCI4*-S last September, becoming just the second combination in the past five years to achieve it at that event. That performance helped secure the win, making HSH Double Sixteen one of only two horses to record two qualifier victories in the 2025 Series - the first coming at this very event exactly 12 months ago. They proved their speed again at the US Equestrian Open Final at Morven Park, where they were the first combination of the day to finish inside the time.

The Numbers Behind Saturday

Of the last ten Bouckaert winners, the cross country phase has been the decisive factor. Just 2% of all starters have ever gone clear and inside the time here, a stark reminder of what the course asks.

The historical XC clear rate sits at 67%, meaning roughly one in three starters will pick up cross-country jumping faults. Whether the leaders from Friday hold their positions,  or whether the course reshuffles the deck entirely, is the story of Saturday.

The action begins at 12:10 p.m. EST. Watch live and free on the USEF Network.

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