Dressage at Devon Could End Ashley Holzer's Five-Month Leaderboard Reign
Holzer is not competing at Devon, and Brittany Fraser-Beaulieu doesn't need a win to take advantage of that.
After 15 weeks of stalled (pun not intended) leaderboard movement, Dressage at Devon could render the current leaderboard unrecognizable.
Ashley Holzer, the US Equestrian Open of Dressage Leading Lady presented by Frank & Eileen, has commanded the top spot of the leaderboard since April. For five months, she's sat comfortably atop it. But she is not competing this weekend, and that makes her vulnerable.
Brittany Fraser-Beaulieu is poised to win Devon this weekend, but to capture Holzer's lead, she doesn't even have to.
How She Gets There
At this point in the season, with 23 qualifiers of varying size and leaderboard point payouts, the mathematical scenarios for how one ends up at the top of the standings are quite complex. Like, 28 columns, a mess of =IF formulas, and more-excel-tabs-than-even-I-really-want-to-look-at complex. So trust me when I tell you, Fraser-Beaulieu has a clear shot at the top and there's really only one plausible scenario where she doesn't make it (and a ridiculously long list of implausible ones).
If she wins this class outright, she's guaranteed at least a share of the lead in the standings. The only thing standing between her and the lead outright is a Kohmann second, which would tie them at the top (more on him below). It's not a longshot, either. She is statistically the strongest rider in this field on a number of metrics.
Fraser-Beaulieu's Career Metrics vs. the Field
She also carries career experience with a top 18 finish for Canada in the 2021 Tokyo Olympic Games and most recently a 22nd place finish at the FEI World Championships in Aachen earlier this summer with Jaccardo. And just in case you needed more convincing… Jaccardo's lowest freestyle score beats the personal best of seven of the 10 other Devon horses who have FEI results.
Who Could Stop Her
Fraser-Beaulieu's campaign for a late-season leaderboard takeover isn't without obstacles, however.
Devon Kane and Vamos are the biggest threat to her Series lead bid. Kane sits fourth with 46 points, and if she wins Devon while Fraser-Beaulieu doesn't, the Series lead goes to Kane instead.
That's not out of the realm of possibility. Kane and Vamos's career-best freestyle, a 75.465 at TerraNova in April, sits just above Fraser-Beaulieu's lowest, and their scores have climbed steadily: 71.900, 72.120, 75.465. But Fraser-Beaulieu beat them the one time they met in the freestyle, 79.250 to 71.900. Still, it's enough to keep Fraser-Beaulieu from feeling comfortable.
The other rider threatening to keep Fraser-Beaulieu from the lead is none other than Kane's husband, Kevin Kohmann. (Did they plan this?!?)
Kohmann sits 9th in the overall standings on 40 points and can add a full 25 this weekend with a win, bringing his total to 65. His impressive resume includes representing the US in the FEI World Cup from 2024 to 2026 and finishing in the top 15 each time. But that was with a different horse.
He brings Sonata Mf, who has never done an FEI freestyle. All we have to go on is their Grand Prix average of 68.97%. Even with a Grand Prix-to-Freestyle scoring lift, they're still 6.15 points shy of Fraser-Beaulieu's worst. Crazier things have happened, and if Fraser-Beaulieu somehow finishes below fourth and Kohmann beats her, he takes the lead.
The last rider threatening Fraser-Beaulieu's leaderboard dominance is fellow countrywoman Camille Carier Bergeron.
Carier Bergeron and Finnlanderin have the third-best freestyle average in the field (73.63). Her career-best freestyle, a 77.280 from Devon two years ago, is the only current combination's personal best that clears Fraser-Beaulieu's average. (Fire Fly's does too, but that was a different rider.) History favors Fraser-Beaulieu: Jaccardo has beaten Finnlanderin in seven of their eight meetings. The one loss came at Devon last year, when Jaccardo was eliminated.
The Other Leaderboard Battle
Devon isn't just going to affect the top of the standings. It'll affect who gets an invite to the $250,000 Final, too. Devon looks likely to push the top 18 invitation line to ~32 points. Ali Potasky, Meagan Davis, and Mabragaña all sit just outside that line, but all three have a real shot at sneaking through this weekend.
Potasky's got it in the bag, especially since she's the most consistent scorer in the field. Davis is probably safe as well. Mabragaña has a tougher weekend ahead of her.
Carier Bergeron, on the other hand, needs a big performance. She sits well below the qualification line at 37th with only one qualifier complete. Devon gives her the second she needs to be eligible at all. But here's the thing. As one of the strongest pairs in the field, it's likely that she'll finish top four. If she podiums, she'll be right on the line. TerraNova, the Series' last qualifier is three weeks out. Whatever happens at Devon, it won't be the last word. Regardless, Carier Bergeron stands to make the biggest leaderboard jump of anyone this weekend.
Tune In
Watch Fraser-Beaulieu, Kane, Carier Bergeron, and the rest of the field Saturday at 7 p.m. ET. Stream Dressage at Devon live on the USEF Network. Sign up for free as a fan to stream the action.
