2026 Dressage Final Preview: What Friday Tells Us About Saturday

The US Equestrian Open of Dressage Final starts Friday, November 13, at Desert International Horse Park. Ten combinations ride the FEI Grand Prix CDI5* at 5 p.m. PT on the first of the Final's two days. Saturday's Freestyle decides the title.

The Grand Prix itself doesn't award more than bragging rights. Riders must score at least 60% to be eligible to ride in the freestyle final, but for all of our 10 finalists, that should be a walk in the park. The bigger value of Friday is feeling.

What does the horse feel like? Are they adjusting to the venue and atmosphere? Is a particular corner scary? These are all questions the Grand Prix can answer and those answers will affect how they ride Saturday's freestyle and the adjustments they need to make. It can also give an immense level of confidence for a strong test... or demolish it for a weak one.

The Grand Prix Pecking Order

According to the numbers, Friday is Gino's. Geñay Vaughn's gelding has the field's highest career Grand Prix average, 68.076%, and its highest personal best, 72.282%. Only one other pair has reached 70 percent: Ali Potasky and INXS.

Rank the field by career average, and INXS, Devon Kane's Vamos and Michael Klimke's Harmony's Dante's Peak sit within 0.041 points of each other. Kristina Harrison-Antell and Finley have the third-best PB at 69.239% but sit fifth on average. Gino's dominant lead is the one thing the numbers make it easy to predict. Second through fifth could land any which way.

Does Friday Predict Saturday?

Yeah, actually, it kind of does. Across these ten riders' careers, a better-than-usual Grand Prix led to an average-or-better Freestyle 89% of the time. Winning follows this pattern, too. In those same careers, the Grand Prix winner went on to win the Freestyle nearly 95% of the time.

Unfortunately this trend cuts both ways. A bad Friday usually follows a pair into Saturday. A poor Grand Prix has more often than not meant a below-average Freestyle, typically by about a point. At the top of this field, that's a lot. Gino's and INXS's Freestyle PBs are less than a tenth of a point apart.

Questions to Answer

Harmony's Dante's Peak is 10 years old and has eight international Grand Prix tests. The six in the US, at Wellington and Ocala, all landed between 67.152% and 68.587%. The two in Europe came in lower, 63.435% at Aachen and 66.500% at Mannheim. The US range is the one that matters Friday, because it puts him right in the pack behind Gino. Klimke describes "Dante" as shy, but very productive once he's confident. Friday will show how confident he is at Thermal. 

James Koford and Fire Fly are still a new pair. They started in February, and their four Grand Prix tests since have all landed between 65.152% and 67.413%. Fire Fly arrives with plenty of mileage from his years with Anna Marek, but it hasn't shown up in their scores yet. Friday is their first CDI5* Grand Prix together and their first in California, which makes it the partnership's biggest test so far. As the oldest pair in the field, the two aren't ready to hang up their hat yet. "The horse wasn't ready to retire and clearly neither am I," Koford said. 

Thermal Regulars

Two pairs have real history in this ring. Gino has ridden four Grand Prix tests here and won three of them. The one he didn't win came at last year's Final, where he was 6th in both the Grand Prix (68.370%) and the Freestyle. Vaughn surely hasn't forgotten that.

Finley rides above his own average at Thermal. His five Grand Prix tests here average 68.348%, 1.476 points above his career mark, and he was 4th in both tests at last year's Final. Finley can be wary of other horses, so Harrison-Antell has a deal with him: shorter warm-ups. 

Saturday's Main Event

Grand Prix scores don't carry over into Saturday, so the title and the $200,000 come down to one Freestyle at 5 p.m. PT. With last year's champion out of the field, the Final will crown a first-time winner.

The Grand Prix starts at 5 p.m. PT Friday, and the Freestyle at the same time Saturday. Friday's Grand Prix streams live on the USEF Network. Saturday's Freestyle streams free on ClipMyHorse.

More from the Final

Four to FollowGeñay VaughnGinoRead →	Four to FollowDevon KaneVamosRead →
Four to FollowAli PotaskyINXSRead →	Four to FollowKristina Harrison-AntellFinleyRead →

Watch GuideHow to Follow the FinalEvery way to watch, read and keep score from Thermal.Read the guide →