Karen O'Neal favored as the Series resumes at Aspen Farms
After a break in the schedule, the Series resumes this weekend with Qualifier 13 at Aspen Farms in Washington. With just four combinations entered, Karen O'Neal has a major opportunity to climb the leaderboard.
There is real reward on the table this weekend. A win would lift Karen O'Neal eight places up the Series leaderboard, and for two of the four combinations this is the weekend they step up to four-star for the first time.
History sets the bar for those two. No four-star debutant has ever won a US Equestrian Open qualifier. Every winner across the Series so far had already run at the level before they took a leg. Stephanie Goodman and Gabrielle Shank would be writing a first if either won on debut here.
Karen O'Neal & Clooney 14 arrive as the form pick having won here in 2024 and finished 2nd in 2025. O'Neal already has a Series win this season, taking Twin Rivers in April when James Alliston's six-year streak at the venue ended with his absence.
Clooney 14 leads the field on dressage and ranks second on Elo, speed, and showjumping. The questions sit on the cross-country, where his clear rate across the last 10 runs reads 50%.
Erin Grandia & Hyacinth line up for only their second attempt at the level. The 14-year-old has a 6RA of 32.0 and a cross-country clear rate of 90% across her last 10 international runs, the second best in the field.
A clear completion would be a strong result this week after their first attempt at four-star ended in a cross-country retirement.
Stephanie Goodman & Elwenda DP make their four-star debut but the data underneath them is the strongest in the field on paper. The 17-year-old carries the top Elo in the class at 472, a 6RA of 30.3 that ranks first, a 100% cross-country clear rate over her last 10 runs, and the fastest speed metric of the four.
The caveat is the level itself. All of that record was built at three-star, and the step up to four-star is the question every debutant has to answer.
Gabrielle Shank & Billy are the field's second four-star debutant. The 13-year-old's standout number is in the show jumping, where his average of 1.3 faults over the last six rounds ranks first in the class.
For the youngest rider in the field at 24, a clean step up to the level is the goal. The same story applies as it does to Stephanie: the record exists, but four-star is the new test.
Karen O'Neal sits 16th on the Series leaderboard with 40 points from a single counting score, her Twin Rivers win. A second qualifier win at Aspen would take her to 80 points across two of six slots, lifting her from 16th to a provisional 8th and level with Alexandra Knowles. That is the largest available swing on the board this weekend.
For the three combinations below her, the leaderboard is not the point. Two four-star debuts and a second attempt at the level make this a weekend about stepping up, not about banking points.
Four combinations, one Series climb in play, and three riders chasing a first four-star completion. The qualifier schedule runs to Maryland International next, and then back to the West Coast for the late summer legs. Eight qualifiers remain before the Final at Morven Park in October.
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