Ocala and Fair Hill run simultaneously as the Series reaches its halfway point

The Series hits its midpoint this weekend with Ocala, FL and Fair Hill, MD running simultaneously - Qualifier 9 in Florida across Friday and Saturday, and Qualifier 10 in Maryland wrapping in a single day on Friday. Ten qualifiers remain after this weekend, plus the $200,000 Final at Morven Park in October.

At the top of the leaderboard, Caroline Pamukcu leads on 145 points, just five ahead of Lucienne Bellissimo on 140. Waylon Roberts sits third on 110. Boyd Martin, William Coleman, and Tamie Smith are all tied fourth on 95. 

Qualifier 9: Ocala

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Tamie Smith holds the top win chances at Ocala. EquiRatings gives her a huge 46% across her three rides: Jump To Day D, Pierre's Farceur du Bochard, and Spiro P who makes his four-star debut this weekend.

Second in the predictions is Colleen Loach & Chiaro Z Excalibur on 16%. The Canadian combination  arrive off the back of a podium finish at TerraNova CCI3*-S and look ready to make an impactful debut at the four-star level.

Jack Curtis & Luska Candy Clover sit third on 12% win chance. They arrive on a strong SJ run: seven consecutive clear international rounds, with the horse's last rail dating all the way back to Plantation Field's CCI3*-S in September 2023.

Smith's three-horse showing and what it means for the overall Series picture is worth reading in full: Tamie Smith is the EquiRatings favorite to win the 2026 Series.

Qualifier 10: Fair Hill

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Fair Hill returns to the Series calendar for the first time since 2022, and it's Sharon White who leads the predictions. Sharon & Jaguars Duende carry a 25% win chance and 55% podium chance - the strongest numbers in either field this weekend. Despite not seeing Jaguars Duende at this level since May 2025 (where they won), EquiRatings has been flagging this horse as one to watch for a while. Read about how data predicts the future US superstars here.

Boyd Martin brings two horses with real winning chances. Shanroe Cooley sits second on 16% — and arrives on a showjumping clear streak — while Miks Master C is third on 15% and leads the pre-event dressage rankings with a 6RA of 25.6. Boyd has a real chance of beating the venue dressage record (26.3), set by none other than himself, back in 2018 riding Long Island T.

Series leader Caroline Pamukcu brings HSH Double Sixteen on 14%, matching Olivia Dutton & Jewelent at the same mark. While Olivia's father, Phillip Dutton & Denim sit just behind on 13%.

History at Fair Hill offers a useful reminder: just two of the event's eleven 4*-S winners were leading after dressage. The jumping phases tends to settle it, and only one combination in the event's entire history has made the time cross country. If you had to guess who is capable? EquiRatings would put their money on HSH Double Sixteen (Caroline Pamukcu).

The Leaderboard Picture

At the top of the leaderboard, Caroline Pamukcu leads on 145 points, just five ahead of Lucienne Bellissimo on 140. Waylon Roberts sits third on 110. Boyd Martin, Will Coleman, and Tamie Smith are all tied fourth on 95 - but the points gap is only part of the story.

Each rider can count a maximum of six scores across the Series. Caroline Pamukcu has already used five of her six slots; Boyd Martin four. Tamie Smith has used just three, meaning all three of her Ocala entries could add to her tally in full.

Once a rider fills their six slots, future gains only come by beating an existing score - the improvement replaces rather than adds. Tamie Smith's three open slots give her a straightforward path to the top of the leaderboard this weekend. And if not this weekend? Stand by for Kentucky.

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