Rebecca Farm CCI4*-S Preview
Rebecca Farm this weekend is the final US Equestrian Open qualifier until September. It's also Mai Baum’s last top-level run. If they do win, it won't come easy.
The US Equestrian Open rolls into Rebecca Farm this weekend with a field headlined by Tamie Smith and her superstar Mai Baum. Mai Baum arrives with a huge win chance for what could be a fairytale finish to their top-level career. They will very likely lead the first phase, but with finishing on your dressage score at Rebecca Farm proving nearly impossible and several fast horses in the field, this competition is far from a foregone conclusion.
It also marks a key moment in the season: the last US Equestrian Open qualifier before an almost two-month break. There will be five more qualifiers remaining in the Series after this weekend, before riders return to Morven Park for a big-money final in early October. James Alliston is entered with Paper Jam and prove the biggest threat to a Tamie fairytale. Provided they complete, it looks likely that they will overtake Caroline Pamukcu and sit in the Series top-three going into the final stretch.
Listen to the 'Rebecca Farm Preview Show' on US Equestrian Open Podcast now.
The Mai Baum Factor
There should be a lot of coverage of Mai Baum this weekend, regardless of the result. The horse that ended the long wait for a home-nation Kentucky winner, a horse that has helped bring home medals and a horse that took us all on a journey of the highest highs and lowest lows. You can listen to Tamie, Alex, Eric and Ellen discuss their journey here.
They now return to Rebecca Farm for one final top-level appearance together, a decade after claiming their first CCI4* victory at this very event—in only their second four-star as a partnership.
They will surely lead the first phase, perhaps by some margin. Looking at their last six international runs as a guide, they have an outstanding EquiRatings 6 Run Average (6RA) of 24.3. And Tamie’s track record at Rebecca Farm speaks volumes — she holds four of the top 10 dressage scores at this venue, each delivered on a different horse, including Mai Baum. It would not be a shock for them to set the venue record.
The top 10 dressage scores at the last 10 Rebecca Farm CCI4*-S
It is very possible that Tamie is in a 1-2 position after dressage. She will also have Jutopia - a ride Tamie is progressing while Molly Duda is on the US Development Tour. Tommy Greengard's That's Me Z is also one to watch for a high twenties (projected within the top 4 starting scores).
The (Near) Impossibility of Finishing on Your Dressage Score
When you have an almost certain strong leader in the first phase, we begin to seek out a key element of what makes sport so special: jeopardy.
Let's start with Mai Baum. Tamie Smith and Mai Baum’s record at the 4*-S level suggests some penalties will be added. They have never made the time together at this level — likely a strategic choice rather than a limitation in speed — but it leaves the door wide open for faster rivals.
Here's a statistic: Half of the last 10 winners were leading after dressage - which means half weren't. The winning range at Rebecca Farm spans from 30.7 to 58.3, with an average winning score of 40.6.
Since 2008, 235 riders have taken on the CCI4*-S at Rebecca Farm — and only one has ever finished on their dressage score. That standout performance came from Karen O'Connor and Mandiba in 2010, when they held onto their dressage score of 29.5 from start to finish, winning by a remarkable 9.8 marks. It’s a reminder that even if Tamie and Mai Baum deliver a low score in the first phase, this win won’t be handed to them — Rebecca Farm doesn’t make it easy.
Speed Horses to Watch
The cross-country phase has been historically influential, with just 60% of riders achieving a clear round over the last 10 years. More tellingly, only 3% manage to finish inside the optimum time - making time penalties almost inevitable for most of the field.
Can anyone make the time? Probably one person. James Alliston has an outstanding record of making the time at this level. Their clear rate at CCI4*-S level is an incredible 31%. For context, Tamie Smith's is 8%.
Tommy Greengard may be new to this level with just five 4*-S starts, but he’s already delivered a clear inside the time, albeit with Joshuay MBF. Greengard has shown he has the pace and precision to be a contender. Not so long ago, Diarm suggested he could win the entire series.
The fastest cross country horses in the field
Based on EquiRatings Top Speed Percentage
The Final Phase Factor
Show jumping on Sunday has played a decisive role at Rebecca Farm in recent years — but not always in the way you’d expect. Over the last 10 runnings, only 20% of riders have delivered a clear round in the final phase. Yet a perfect round isn’t essential for victory — 7 of the last 10 winners had at least one rail on the final day.
Two combinations to keep an eye on this Sunday are Lizzie Hoff and HSH Limited Edition and Jack Curtis with Luska Candy Clover, both arriving with good jumping records at the level below.
The most reliable show jumpers in the field
Based on the adjusted average of their SJ penalties
Who wins?
According to the EquiRatings Prediction Centre, Tamie Smith enters on 61% win chance and an 85% shot at the podium. She sits far ahead of the next most-likely winners James Alliston and Paper Jam on 13% and Rebecca Braitling with Caravaggio on 6%. 
Want to know more about Rebecca Farm?
We've crunched all the numbers, analyzed every stat, and uncovered the key storylines you need to know before Rebecca Farm kicks off this weekend. From dressage averages to cross-country clear rates, speed percentages to show jumping reliability - it's all in our comprehensive form guide. Check it out here.
When and where to watch?
Competition begins Thursday with dressage across two days, cross-country will be on Saturday afternoon, and show jumping on Sunday. In a sport where anything can happen, Rebecca Farm's challenging track record suggests we're in for another thrilling finish.
You can catch all the action live on the USEF Network, powered by ClipMyHorse.TV, streaming free with a USEF Fan Membership — check it out here.
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