Reigning Series winner is favored to add 40 points this weekend

Tamie Smith won the 2026 US Equestrian Open of Eventing Series on a record 265 points. One qualifier into the 2027 Series, the Series champion starts her defense at Galway Downs with Kynan, and the EquiRatings Prediction Centre makes them the favorites on a 45% win chance.

How Tamie Smith won the 2026 Series on a record 265 points →

Galway Downs International in Temecula, California hosts Qualifier 2 of 22 from October 29 to November 1, running dressage, then cross-country and then show jumping across the three days. Galway has run a CCI4*-S every year since 2003, always in the spring. This is the first fall running. With four entries, the small qualifier scale applies: 40 points for the win, then 35, 30 and 25, and every combination that finishes Galway Downs with an MER will leave with Series points. Ride times and the stats on every entry are in the Fan Guide.

New to the Open? How the Series works, in two minutes →

Tamie Smith and Kynan. Photo: Avery Wallace/US Equestrian

Galway Downs Fan Guide: every combination, every number →

1	The Series Champion Goes First Tamie Smith & Kynan · 45% win chance

Kynan leads this field in two of the three phases. His average across his last six dressage tests is 30.0, the best of the four. In show jumping he has not knocked a rail in his last ten international rounds, a run that stretches back to September 2024. 

Cross-country is the question. Kynan picked up 20 jumping penalties in three of his last four completed international runs, and his clear rate across his last ten is 50%, 15 percentage points below the fields he ran against. He has not run since Tryon in May, where he finished 16th. Galway is the answer Smith will point to. Kynan has run two CCI4*-S here, jumped clear across country in both and finished fifth each time.

Smith herself knows how to win here. She has taken this class in three of its last ten editions: 2018 with Sunsprite Syrius, then 2023 and 2024 with Mai Baum. The 27.4 Mai Baum finished on in 2024 is still the best winning score in the class over the last 10 runnings (2016 through spring 2026).

2	Who Can Beat Her Kellerhouse, Goodman & Smith-Cook · 55% win chance between them

Erin Kellerhouse & Ringwood Adios Amigo have the second-highest win chance with 25%. They won at Woodside on October 2, the last qualifier of the 2026 Series, ahead of Smith & Spiro P. At Galway Downs, a second CCI4*-S win in a row is on the table. Kellerhouse has won this class before, with Woodford Reserve in 2021. They finished on 30.1 that day, inside the time, and it is still the fourth-best finishing score in the class since 2016.

Ringwood Adios Amigo brings the speed. On his three fastest days of his last ten, he outpaced 85% of opponents, the best in this field. Dressage is the gap. His six-test average is 38.4, 8.4 penalties behind Kynan.

Stephanie Goodman & Elwenda DP carry the highest Elo in the field at 475. Elo is the EquiRatings rating of long-term form, built on who a horse has beaten. The 17-year-old mare won the Aspen Farms CCI4*-S in June on her first start at the level and has the best cross-country jumping record of the four: clear in nine of her last ten, 22 percentage points better than the fields she ran against. They retired on cross-country at Rebecca Farm in July, then won a CCI2*-S at Woodside this month. Win chance 17%, podium 75%.

Stephanie Goodman & Elwenda DP en route to winning the Aspen Farms CCI4*-S in June. Photo: Ashley Kemp Photography

Kaylawna Smith-Cook & Dealas make it mother and daughter in the same class. The nine-year-old gelding steps up to CCI4*-S for the first time with a rider who competed at the level from 2021 to 2023. This field has met before. In the Galway CCI3*-S in March, Dealas and Ringwood Adios Amigo finished level on 40.9, split on cross-country time. Dealas took fourth that day, and fourth in the CCI3*-L here last October without a cross-country time penalty. The Prediction Centre has them on 13% to win and 62% for the podium.

Why we tipped Kaylawna Smith-Cook as the West Coast dark horse →

Kynan starts on 45% to win and 87% for the podium. The other three share 55%.

Win chance and podium probability via the EquiRatings Prediction Centre, pre-competition

The clock decides Galway. One of 41 cross-country starters in this class since 2022 has made the time, and five of 93 starters since 2016 have finished on their dressage score. The dressage leader has won three of the last ten editions, and the last two winners were third after the first phase. Every Galway CCI4*-S in the results since 2008 ran in the spring. This is the first in the fall.

Sharon White leads the Series on 40 points after winning Bouckaert with Jaguars Duende. A win here is worth 40 and puts the Galway winner level with her. Second place, worth 35, moves into the top three.

See the full Series leaderboard (The Open tab) →

Dressage starts at 9:30 a.m. Pacific on Thursday, cross-country follows on Friday from 12:55 p.m., and show jumping closes it out on Saturday from 4:12 p.m.

Follow every ride in the Galway Downs Fan Guide →

Forty points. Three phases. The Series champion is first into the arena.

This week in The Open Weekly

Eventing White Starts 2027 Where She Left Off → Sharon White & Jaguars Duende win Qualifier 1. Jonathan Holling leads on 45 points. Jumping Keenan and Kick On Own the Clock in Washington → 36.69 seconds, the only jump-off round under 37. Dressage Kohmann Takes the 2026 Series Title → 65 points from four starts on three horses. Read The Open Weekly →