Second in the Series Will Be Settled at Stable View
Tamie Smith has the title. Second and third, worth $15,000 and $10,000, come down to two riders with two horses each at Stable View Oktoberfest.
Caroline Pamukcu and Lucienne Bellissimo won the last two runnings of the Stable View CCI4*-S. This weekend they meet there again with the Series podium on the line. Qualifier 19 of 20 is the last start either rider has entered this Series, and it is the only place left where second and third can change hands.
Tamie Smith confirmed the title with Danito's win at Twin Rivers Fall International and sits on 265 points, five more than the 260 that won the 2025 Series. Will Coleman is second on 215 and Boyd Martin is on 210. Neither is entered at Stable View or at Woodside Fall International next weekend, so both totals are fixed. Pamukcu is level with Martin on 210 and ahead of him on the tie-break. Bellissimo is fifth on 175.
The entry list stands at 21, which puts Stable View on the small qualifier scale: 40 points for a win, down to 5 for eighth. Pamukcu brings HSH Limited Edition & HSH Sebastian. Bellissimo brings Dyri & Qatar M.
Series prize money is paid on points once all twenty Qualifiers are complete, counting each rider's six best placings. Third place pays $10,000 and fourth pays nothing, so the gap between the last podium place and the one below it is worth more than the gap between second and third.
| Series prize money |
Series winner
$25,000 · Tamie Smith
Second place
$15,000 · Decided at Stable View
Third place
$10,000 · Decided at Stable View
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Lucienne Bellissimo & Dyri at Stable View. Photo: [credit]
Two numbers decide most of what happens next: the tie-break, and each rider's two lowest counting scores.
Level totals are split on the lowest finishing score a rider has posted at any qualifier in the Series, and the rule applies at every position, not only first. Bellissimo holds the lowest of the group, the 27.7 she and Dyri won Stable View Spring International on in April. Coleman's best is 30.3 at Tryon International. Pamukcu's is 30.4 with HSH Blake at Carolina International. Martin's is 34.8.
That makes Bellissimo the winner of any tie she is part of. Pamukcu beats Martin and loses to Coleman by 0.1. The number is not locked. A lower finishing score this weekend replaces it.
Pamukcu's two lowest counting scores are both 25s. Fourth place is worth 25, so it changes nothing. Only a top three moves her total: a win takes her to 225, second to 220, third to 215.
Second or better puts her clear of Coleman. Third leaves her level with him on 215, and he takes that tie on his 30.3 unless she finishes Stable View on a lower score. Under 27.7 and she would beat Bellissimo on a tie as well.
A top two with either horse guarantees her a podium place. With Pamukcu holding one of the first two places, the most Bellissimo can reach is 230, and Coleman cannot move off 215. First and second together would give Pamukcu 235 and second in the Series outright.
She knows how to win this class. Pamukcu took it last September with HSH Double Sixteen on a finishing score of 33.4, one of only three combinations to finish on their dressage score across 257 starters in the last 10 runnings. She brings HSH Limited Edition & HSH Sebastian this week.
Bellissimo starts furthest back but has the most to gain. Her two lowest counting scores are a 10 and a 5, so almost everything she earns this weekend counts at face value. A win on its own replaces the 5 and takes her to 210. That ties Pamukcu and Martin, and she wins both ties on the 27.7.
To go higher she needs her second horse inside the top six. A win and a sixth takes her to 215, level with Coleman, and she beats him on the tie-break. A win and a second is 235. She can reach the podium without the win: a second and a third is 225, and a second and a fifth is 215.
Dyri leads the Prediction Centre on a 40% Win Chance. He has won two of his five CCI4*-S starts at Stable View: the fall edition in 2024 on 30.3, and the spring edition this April on 27.7. That April round was a finish on his dressage score and one of four clear cross-country rounds inside the time from 221 in the last 10 runnings. Qatar M, 10, makes a CCI4*-S debut.
Both ceilings are 235, and both lead to second in the Series. Only one rider can fill first and second. If Pamukcu does it, Bellissimo's best is 215 from a third and a fourth, and she finishes third. If Bellissimo does it, Pamukcu's best is 215 from a third, and she needs a finishing score under 30.3 to hold third ahead of Coleman.
The rest of the field decides how much room there is. Six other combinations carry a Win Chance of 2% or more: Waylon Roberts with Fernhill Salt Lake (20%) and Chevalier (8%), Kim Severson & Cooley Corraghy Diamond (10%), Mary Bess Davis & Imperio Magic (9%), Alyssa Phillips & Rockett 19 (6%), and Elisa Wallace & Lissavorra Quality (2%). Every place they take is one neither contender can. Roberts is sixth in the Series on 160 and can reach 200 at most, ten short of the podium.
Woodside Fall International closes qualifying on the West Coast on October 2. Neither Pamukcu nor Bellissimo is entered, so the podium is settled in Aiken. The US Equestrian Open of Eventing Final follows at Morven Park International & Fall Horse Trials on October 8 to 11, a CCI4*-L with a $200,000 purse.
Two riders. Four horses. Twenty-five thousand dollars to split.
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