Six horses, two weekends: Why Tamie Smith is the Series favorite

California based, Tamie Smith’s moved east for the start of the season and it is playing to her advantage. It’s giving her access to bigger fields and therefore bigger points, setting the tone for a serious 2026 Series campaign.

Now she arrives at a defining moment. This weekend at Ocala, she arrives with three horses, including the EquiRatings Prediction Centre favorite. Two more enter with strong podium chances. Next week at Kentucky, she brings another three, including both the favorite and the second favorite.

That's six horses across two back-to-back qualifiers. And she's only used half her scoring allocation.

Where Tamie sits right now

Tamie is equal 4th in the 2026 Series standings on 95 points. Seems like a big gap to close? It's not.

The leader, Caroline Pamukcu has five counting scores. Tamie has three and is only 50 points behind (just one Kentucky win away from matching her!). Of course competitors can improve upon their scores but to do that, they need to beat what they've already posted which is a harder task than simply adding.

At 145 points across five results, Pamukcu's floor is already high. Tamie's three open slots have no floor at all. Every score she adds counts in full. It’s not a gap to close, it’s an advantage.

The Ocala opportunity

This weekend in Ocala, Tamie arrives with three horses and holds the top win chance in the field by some distance.

EquiRatings gives Jump To Day D a 28% win chance and a 57% podium chance. No other combination in the field is even close to that number on win chance. Pierre's Farceur du Bochard slots in fourth on a 12% win chance and Spiro P is on a 6% win chance.

Three horses. Three podium shots. Three scores left to count for the leaderboard. The probability of Tamie leaving Florida without additional points on the board is low.

The Kentucky chance

Whatever Tamie takes out of Florida, Kentucky gives her a second chance to build on it.

The points scale shifts at Kentucky. With a field of over 25 starters, every placing pays more. Tamie doesn't even have to improve her finishing position to improve her points, the same result is simply worth more.

And if Ocala goes quietly? It doesn't matter. She still arrives with three experienced horses, three open slots, and both the favorite and second favorite on the Prediction Centre.

The huge string behind her

Tamie's string is one of the biggest in the US at the four-star level right now. Looking at her 2025 and 2026 results — and setting aside Jutopia (Molly Duda's horse, on whom she did one run) and the retired Mai Baum — she has seven horses competing at the level, one of which makes their four-star debut at Ocala this weekend.

The string is not just large, it's in form. Tamie has already won five international events in 2026, more than any other rider globally. Only one of those wins has come at four-star level, but the volume and consistency across the board points to a rider hitting her stride at the right time.

The finishing score data backs it up. Among US athletes at the four-star level over the last 12 months, Tamie sits atop of the EquiRatings power* rankings with an average of 29.8 - the only US rider to break the sub-30 barrier. 

*The Power average is calculated from the three best finishing scores recorded by an athlete, meaning it strips out the outliers and measures sustained quality. 

The West Coast factor

After Kentucky, the calendar likely takes Tamie home. She's normally California-based, and while she has made the journey east for the early season qualifiers in the lead up to Kentucky weekend and likely, to make a statement before Aachen - but what matters for the Series is what follows.

The late summer West Coast events of Rebecca Farm (July 15), Twin Rivers (September 17), and Woodside (October 2) bring smaller fields — and a smaller points scale — but wins and podiums are more attainable than they are in the wide-open fields of Carolina and Kentucky. Multiple horses on home turf makes that a realistic expectation, not just a possibility.

The Call

This weekend will see qualifier 9 and 10 take place marking the halfway point with only 10 more to go. The EquiRatings model has Tamie as favourite and second favorite to win qualifier 9 and 11. She has more open scoring potential than anyone above her on the leaderboard.

Here is the EquiRatings prediction: Tamie Smith wins the 2026 US Equestrian Open of Eventing Series.

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