Tamie Smith is set to take the Series lead

It was a big day on the Kentucky Horse Park cross-country course with a 62% clear rate and an average of 11.2 time penalties, 2.7 more than expected from this class. The course asked questions (mainly at the influential corner), and not everyone had the answers. But the below riders did.

Tamra Smith & Lillet 3 proved the metrics right. Coming in as the fastest horse in the field by Top Speed Percentage at 95%, they delivered — picking up just 1.6 time penalties to move into the lead with a combined score of 31.3. Smith goes into the final phase with a 90% win chance on the prediction centre. A win would add 50 points to her series tally and hand her the Series lead, with a 20 point gap to Caroline Pamukcu. The leaderboard implications are significant.

Will Coleman & Very Dignified, or Dora to those who know her, put in a smashing round, picking up just 4.4 time penalties to sit second. Coleman has spoken warmly about this mare throughout the season, and it is easy to see why. She jumped clear (and inside the time!) at the US Equestrian Open Final and she jumped clear again today. The prediction centre gives her just a 9% win chance but with a 93% top-three chance, a podium looks likely. 

Mia Farley & Invictus sit third after a strong round with just 5.6 time penalties. This combination has historically carried significant time penalties — often into double figures — but they have been getting faster, and today showed that progress clearly. 

The breakout round of the day, though, belonged to Isabelle Cook. Tina Cook's daughter, competing as part of the GB Rising Lions programme, was the fastest combination on course for a spell — until Smith came out late in the order — posting just 3.2 time penalties to climb 28 places from 36th to 8th. A remarkable ride that will turn heads.

Tomorrow, show jumping decides it. Lillet 3 leads with a pole in hand. Very Dignified is 4.4 penalties behind. The EquiRatings Prediction Centre has made its call.