WEC Preview: Wandres Could Lose the Lead And He’s Not Even There

The Grand Prix Freestyle at WEC Ocala this week has three legitimate contenders and no obvious favorite. Jennifer Williams and Joppe K, Ashley Holzer and Hawtins San Floriana, and Claire Darnell and Harrold S are separated by less than a percentage point in career average. Their personal bests span barely more than a point.

The Top 3

If you need to hand someone the slight edge, recent form points to Williams. She’s logged back-to-back 75.455s with a last-three average just above 75% and a scoring range of just over a point. That's a pair executing consistently near the top of what they've shown. But "slight edge" is more of an educated shrug than a full-blown prediction. 

Darnell and Harrold S, meanwhile, are trending sharply upward. Their last three scores — 73.450, 74.315, 74.365 — form a tight, rising sequence, with their most recent result the best of the bunch. The issue is simple arithmetic: that 74.365 is essentially Williams's recent floor. For Darnell to win, she'd not only need to put in a personal-best-level performance, but would also need Williams to have an off day. Now granted, Darnell’s personal best with this horse is a 77.015%, but that score was posted more than three years ago. Her current form is a more honest read of where the pair sits. 

Holzer and Hawtins San Floriana are the wildcard. Their recent scores span from 73.555 to 75.290. That two-point spread means Holzer can beat anyone in this field on the right day, or lose to the other favorites on the wrong one. Hawtins has yet to win a Grand Prix Freestyle, which remains true after eight starts together. A sharp ride this weekend could break that curse. But that's the thing about a wide-open field: a career first is on the table, and so is third place.

A Race Within A Race

The more interesting story this weekend may not even be who wins the class. It's what Holzer and Darnell do to each other on the leaderboard.

Wandres currently leads the Series, but he's not competing this weekend. Whether he's still leading when scores post depends entirely on how Holzer and Darnell finish — and relative to each other, not just the field. Darnell sits just behind Wandres. Holzer is close behind her. If both place in the top three, Wandres loses the lead, and whoever places higher between the two of them takes it. The only scenario where Wandres holds on requires Darnell to fall outside the top three, and even then, only if Holzer also doesn't finish first or second.

That makes this a race within a race, and given how close these two score, it runs through every movement of both freestyles.