Off The Record Heads the Prediction Centre for the Final
The EquiRatings Prediction Centre gives every combination a chance to win, to finish in the top three and to finish in the top 10. These are the 10 most likely winners of the US Equestrian Open of Eventing Final at Morven Park.
Will Coleman & Off The Record start the $200,000 Final as favorites on 27%. Defending champion Boyd Martin & Luke 140 are second on 18%. Series winner Tamie Smith & Danito are a point behind on 17%. Lucienne Bellissimo & Dyri are the only other combination in double figures, on 10%. After that, no one is above 6%.
The Final is about to kick off. Here is the top 10 on the EquiRatings Prediction Centre.
Off The Record is the highest-rated horse in the field by 113 Elo points. He also ranks first on speed (TSP of 96%) and OBP (86%). OBP is the Opposition Beaten Percentage, it measures the share of opponents a horse has beaten.
He holds the Morven Park dressage record, 25.1 from last year. He led after cross-country, then one rail dropped him to second on 29.1, 0.4 behind Martin. Coleman is 3/3 clear across country here and 2/3 inside the time. Off The Record is the No.1 US horse on Elo and second only to Mai Baum among US horses ever.
Martin has won two of the last three runnings here, on Commando 3 in 2023 and Miks Master C in 2025. His 11 CCI4*-L wins are the most of any rider in the world since records began in 2008.
The 15-year-old came back from some time off to win The Fork CCI4*-S in September on 40.3, his first run of 2026. Speed is the soft spot: he has had time penalties in the double digits in his last six completed cross-country rounds.
Danito's 6RA of 25.9 is the best in the field. His 19.5 at Tryon in May set a Series dressage record and was the best international test at any level in 2026. He won there on 27.9 and then won again at Twin Rivers Fall International in September.
Smith won here in 2022 on Solaguayre California and took the 2026 Series on a record 265 points. The jumping is the question. Danito has one show jumping clear from four starts at CCI4*-L and CCI5*, and his OBP of 56% is the lowest of the five highest-rated horses in the field.
Dyri has never had a jumping fault at Morven. He was fourth in the CCI4*-L in 2023 and second in 2024 on 35.5, clear in both jumping phases each time. His 6RA of 26.2 is second only to Danito, and his average of 0.7 cross-country time penalties is the lowest in the field.
Bellissimo switched to ride for the USA in late 2025. Dyri won Series Qualifiers at Bouckaert in October 2025 and Stable View in April 2026. They hace five Morven runs at any level since 2021 and has never finished outside the top five.
HSH Connor is the outlier in this top 10. His Elo of 467 ranks 24th in the field. His flatwork and show jumping carry him here: a 6RA of 29.0 (6th) and a clear show jumping streak of 11 rounds.
Cross-country is the question. He is 4/10 clear in his last 10 international runs. He won the Bouckaert CCI4*-S in March on 48.6, his first run at the level. Pamukcu was second here in 2023 on King's Especiale and is 3/3 clear cross-country at Morven.
Claus 63 scored 25.2 here last year, the second-best dressage in the venue's CCI4*-L history. He picked up a 20 on course to finish 10th. He also led the dressage here in 2022 on 29.0 but was eliminated cross-country.
Cross-country is the concern: 6 form his last 10 are clear. He led the MARS Bromont CCI4*-L after dressage in June on 31.4, then withdrew before cross-country.
Invictus won the Tryon CCI4*-L in May, Farley's first win at the level. They have not finished off the podium in any event this seaosn. The 58% top 10 chance is level with Dyri and behind only the top three.
Karen O'Connor bred and raised the 10-year-old in Middleburg, Virginia, up the road from Morven. Farley was third here in 2022 on Phelps on 34.4, clear inside the time and clear in the show jumping.
The 9-year-old grey makes his CCI4*-L debut. He won the Virginia Horse Center CCI3*-S in May and the Bouckaert CCI4*-S in August. He is the No.2 US 9-year-old on Elo.
His expected cross-country clear chance of 60% ranks 29th, despite eight clears from his last 10. Severson brings major experience to the table having won Kentucky three times in four years with Winsome Adante.
Rockett 19 was produced in Sweden by Louise Romeike. Alyssa Phillips took over the ride in 2025. Their only CCI4*-L together was the horse's first, at Rebecca Farm in Kalispell, Montana, in July. They led after dressage on 28.3, added 16.4 time penalties and finished second. The clock is the problem. His expected cross-country time of 7.7 penalties ranks 24th in the field. He was fifth in the Stable View CCI4*-S in September on 43.4.
Conner won the Maryland 5 Star CCI3*-L last October wire to wire on 24.8, in one of the most competitive classes of the year. Rockett 19 finished second.
The 9-year-old has four international wins. His record has been patchier since he stepped up to four-star. He picked up jumping penalties across country at Bouckaert and Stable View in the spring and retired on course in his only CCI4*-L, at Bromont in June. He jumped clear for sixth in the Kentucky CCI4*-S in April and eighth at Plantation Field in September. Bosley's previous CCI4*-L here ended in seventh, on Night Quality in 2021.
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